According to program arrangement, national statistic bureau will be announced now the dweller consumed price index May (CPI) . Since May, pork price accumulative total drops range is bigger, but the near future appears rebound, but this did not affect CPI go situation. The orgnaization predicts, CPI went up compared to the same period in May or still maintain in " 1 times " .
Pork price is hit " back thrust "
Data of national statistic bureau shows, CPI rose compared to the same period April 1.8% , go up relatively small in March fall after a rise 0.3 percent, drop answered " 1 times " .
Monitor according to Department of Commerce, came 13 days on May 7, came 20 days on May 14, came 27 days on May 21 index of price of market of produce of edible of 3 weeks of whole nations parts relatively before a week drops 0.9% , drop 0.8% , rise 0.3% , index of price of manufacturing data market parts relatively before a week rises 0.2% , rise 0.4% , keep balance basically.
The report that center of traffic bank banking issues shows, food price annulus was compared in May will continue somewhat fall after a rise, predict to drop extent is controlled in 3 percent. Whole of price of food of blame of home of the corresponding period is smooth, but oil price of domestic finished product received the coming year May inside the biggest go up, or will bring about was not food in May the price and get on comparing of phase of the moon is small to pick up to 2.2% . In the meantime, became warped in May end element is 1.34% , than going up the month picks up 0.11 percent.
Integrated above element, chief economist Lian Ping judges traffic bank, portion CPI went up compared to the same period in May 2018 the likelihood is controlled in 1.5-1.7% , take median for 1.6% , go up a month on photograph comparing continue to have small fall after a rise.
Research center of economy of Beijing University countryman predicts, CPI rose compared to the same period May 2.0% . The price is added fast small rise, but short-term inside the care that does not have inflation.
According to Wind statistic, the near future shares 17 orgnaizations to go to the CPI May situation undertook forecasting, forecasting maximum is to rise compared to the same period 2.0% , calculate the least value for 1.6% , calculate average for 1.8% .
The research report of the negotiable securities that start line of business thinks, CPI maintained gentle backside May, have two respects factor propping up: It is food rises quickly in what experienced the beginning of the year later rapid fall after a rise, up to in April, accumulative total annulus is compared go up be in in recent years inferior level; 2 it is medical treatment after service price reform is finished basically, in recent years of Medical Protection go up compared to the same period a ceaseless fall after a rise. Two elements or right to rising to oil price of CPI pull touch effect.
Be worth what carry is, as the influence CPI takes one of main factors of situation, pork price is in the last ten-day of a month changed declining tendency in May, appeared small rebound. Department of Commerce monitors data to show, came 27 days on May 21, the flesh kind whole of trade price case picks up, among them pork price is every kilograms 17.24 yuan, a week before comparing rises 2.4% . Before 3 weeks of May, a week before pork price is compared respectively drops 1.2% , 0.9% , 0.7% .
But in the letter is built those who cast grind the newspaper points out, although pork price appears,rebound, but pork price all was worth in May still appear annulus comparing drops, just drop close somewhat narrow. Consideration base dropped last year, pork price falls compared to the same period enlarge a trend to defer. Founder metaphase futures considers to report middle finger goes out, future gives birth to pig price or need more little and occurrence fall after a rise.
To the prices of annual rose 2018, su Jian thinks, conduct to CPI as PPI, plus effect of small cardinal number, the CPI 2018 is added fast may rise, annual goes up compared to the same period a possibility of more than 2% is very large.
PPI compared to the same period or will continue to rebound
To in May industrial index of producer prices (of PPI) go situation, the orgnaization thinks, or relatively rose somewhat in April. The data of national statistic bureau shows, PPI rose compared to the same period April 3.4% , annulus comparing drops 0.2% .
The report of center of traffic bank banking points out, from the Zhou Pin that already announced in May manufacturing data price goes situation look, the sources of energy kind, product of nonferrous metal, balata rises in price more apparent. Among them, price annulus compares oil natural gas to rise considerably, go up achieve 7.6% ; Annulus of value of product of black metal, chemical industry is compared go up more apparent, exceeded 1% ; Value of coal, nonferrous metal is little rise.
Lian Ping says, will become warped end element (consider inside for 3.96%) , predict PPI went up compared to the same period in May will be in 3.7% to 4.1% between, take median for 3.9% . This kind goes up a continuance since April rebound answer litre of posture, and ascendant extent may be increased.
According to Wind statistic, the near future shares 16 orgnaizations to go to the PPI May situation undertook forecasting, forecasting maximum is to rise compared to the same period 4.4% , calculate the least value for 3.8% , calculate average for 4.0% .
Go to later period price situation, su Jian says: "Although short-term inside nonexistent inflation pressure, but the possibility that does not eliminate mutation of later period economic situation to cause the price to fluctuate considerably. " Lian Ping says: "The possibility that predicting future PPI rises is larger, the likelihood picks up to 4% over, PPI and phenomenon of CPI price scissors or emersion. PPI and phenomenon of CPI price scissors or emersion..
