Introduction
A few days ago, ren Zhijiang accepts interview say: Building city restricts policy, one year half hind the likelihood is called in. Once pour out of,interview, everybody is resonant and enthusiastic.
Regrettablly is, allowed to always answer a few questions only simply, friends are read so that do not pass addiction, meaning still did not use up.
Accordingly, I was found on the weekend always at that time " my residence my finance " countrywide make one's rounds is exhibited, beijing head is exhibited begin the reporter interlocution on type asks, arranged share with friends.
About house price it is to go up to still drop, when to buy a house appropriate, the dried food and nuts is full, allowing always is to know word of all without exception.
01
Consult a teacher, can be met below this house price or you drop?
Urban natural resources decides the discretion of house price, had you seen which those who there is number of households and total population should escape on north wide deep?
Ren Zhijiang:
The problem that house price rises and drops, be market decision, not be whose compose a quarrel does not say. The house of a city goes up and drop, go up with the house of a country and dropping is two different matters. House price is in China now go up, can say to going up in certain city only, say house price is in now drop, because certain city is in,be drop.
Why can a city be swelled? Because this city has tremendous resource,be, this resource may be climate, the likelihood is an environment, the likelihood is finance, the likelihood is the right, the likelihood is humanitarian, the likelihood is artistic, the likelihood is culture.
For instance I should mean sunshine and beach, I go Hainan, hainan some house, be in every day rise in price, sell light, also have buy immobile house. But if you want the word of mist haze to go to Beijing, see your demand what?
You should want financial word, the finance of Beijing is most, because the finance of Beijing is occupied,comparing is highest, the finance in tertiary industy is occupied comparing is highest.
This house price tall because will have these resource,be, you that city is not had not high, e.g. education, medical treatment waits a moment, you are not had.
But what is this house price?
House price is the cost that has these resource when you, exorbitant when, the person does not come, have these resource when you, no matter have many,buy a house expensive, you still have remaining sum, to get these resource, I still have remaining sum, people continues, this house price rose.
The oldest when have a fokelore, call mother of the first month 3 change, why should move 3 times? Search resource namely. Search she considers as two pairs female education, right perhaps the environment of a resources with Mencius best education, so she moved the home 3 times. So move every time has cost, you go up to this degree, this house price is such.
But if deduct house price cost and life cost outside, you still have win remaining sum, ground of that your meeting more goes toward this city. Conversely, the cost that you obtain these resource is already undeserved, that house price is exorbitant, the person walked, so simple.
So house price rises and drop, ask the benefit that gets this resource and house price cost what the relation between is first. You look so much article is written escape on north wide deep, excuse me which be census register says in the person of this city I want to escape my census register seat? Do not go up to north wide deep? You are media, you use put on one's thinking cap child.
Why? Because China has specialty, a moment ago he says to build the market that rent, why is the Chinese market that rent no good? Because rent,China rents the market to be no good is cannot go up registered permanent residence. Why doesn't this city person escape on north wide? Because my registered permanent residence is here.
I can take medical treatment resource, escape so the wide census register on north is not here, he does not have these resource inherently, so he must come in spend cost of a life, spend a cost that buys a house to have these resource.
So this is the course that a resource changes certainly, you understand the course that resource changes, go up with respect to what not need calculates room value drop. You calculate probably OK numerate, does the cost of house price cost that needs to have these resource place not worth? Not worth with respect to house price tall, the value comes in with respect to afterwards, you do not buy others, you are canned not afford do not be equal to others to be able to not afford.
If return superabundant specified number, if Beijing is gotten the profit of resource is bigger, perhaps say you have an opportunity more, for instance my month is earned 200 thousand, be in Beijing to be able to be earned only, other place is not OK.
That house price is higher and higher, it is resource occupies some gaining profit between cost of level and your price of life cost house quite, so you do not ask me, all moving move brain to look to know.
I did not say the house does not go up.
02
I had Beijing census register, so I also do not have a law to be moved. But I consider a car again, because house price rises too quickly now, from the university when rise, disrelish all the time expensive, cannot get on a car now. Do you feel in what opportunity I should choose now?
Price ill will a room is expensive, are you preemptive are a 8 little rooms of smooth rice no good all right?
Ren Zhijiang:
Because you are stupid,I feel main is. We can see these so called the foreigner that has Beijing census register, often feel I should have 60 to average the house of rice, so I look only 60 smooth rice or of above, you must see the 10 rooms of smooth rice. Preemptive 8 is those who make the same score rice good? Buy again next of 15, 15 change of 30, 30 change of 40.
What to know to make investment at all, what is investment? When invest even if doing not have money preemptive, it is the cheapest to buy, next ability is increasing.
You see Buffett, can Buffett say to buy Biergaici first? Far from likely, do you want to buy the 150 houses of smooth rice today? The door is done not have. So your fault is in with respect to the fault oneself became stupid, and buy do not buy a house to did not concern.
Are you preemptive are a 8 little rooms of smooth rice no good all right? Do not buy those who learn an area, you should say the house went up of 10 times, do you go up into 80 square metre? This problem I feel disgraceful.
03
The change of price of every time house, those who include the market is fervent still have drop in temperature, the use degree that actually myself feeling is this lever that borrows with the room is relevant. This can you say?
Nonsense! Estate and Chinese whole are macroscopical economy is relevant
Ren Zhijiang:
This is nonsense, you can be checked, the data that statistical bureau publishs, how much is the room borrowed the proportion that holds total sale 2016? According to the report of statistical bureau, probably the room is borrowed 21% what take all skill room only. We the sale of near 12 trillion, have 21% only.
You are checked again check 2015, be 23% , 25% , 2014 taller than this. Still can check this year 1 to Feburary, be 31% , last year 930 came on stage a lot of increase leverage, why does the leverage last year have 21% only?
How to arrive to became Feburary this year 31% ? 31% not tall, this Shi Zonggang just says a number. The United States borrow be equivalent to 80 trillion RMB, near 13 trillion dollar, china just 1.3 trillion dollar, we are equivalent to probably 12% , very low very low.
The Chinese does not have a habit, is the Chinese in without the habit? The Chinese still is borrowed probably namely is 8.5 years or so. The Chinese is unaccustomed indebted, why?
The reason depends on duty, is American what to calculative press? A taxpayer deducts the individual income tax of 500 thousand, two should be buckled 1 million. How much be equivalent to? Be equivalent to all accrual.
You still were over this year, continue to pay rapidly next year, do not pay interest, 500 thousand duty is exhaustless. It is all one's life 7 arrive 8 years, strive for 50 use to the tax-exempt specified amount of 1 million. Don't I myself live a bit weller?
So the Chinese is not, the Chinese pays tax anyway, then I still am not to be paid off as far as possible, more Qian Yue is returned early. So this setting, the historical setting with existent taxation decided the activity of people, then you are willing to be returned early.
But, what be secondly? Original what is borrowing? I take the money that did not come 30 years to today to use, do not return earn more more. After mixing 30 years because of a today's money one yuan, be worth 3 wool only, but 30 years the following 3 wools Qian Fang is used to today, earn defecate appropriate?
But the Chinese does not understand, what the Chinese thinks is to return what do not have a thing to will do other tomorrow again today today. So traditional consciousness and the situation that create without the process of taxation derate are different. Why the means that can somebody use a divorce? Divorce policy tells you the divorce also is no good later, it is the process that undertakes rich weichis between government and market.
Which spend American this idea? Do not consider this issue, but only China has. So existing policy is, may put in a few to adjust the moving circumstance of short-term and macroscopical economy decisions to publish policy.
The whole that our view on the history is estate and China is macroscopical economy is closely related, it is relevant that so the view of our past history calls the whole of estate and China macroscopical economy, growth is exorbitant cannot use, had had countless times on the history.
Do not know this, I did not say this, this is before historical thing, the article before you love in order to is OK also. But just say the history this, this thing gets you for, I did not say.
04
Ask Ren Zongzhe learned question, be residential achievement finance after all? Be still financial success residence? E.g. us present bank is best the credit business of situation, basically be estate, residence, 70, the bank of 80% is such. Our estate business is in debt probably now have 80% , 90% , so I want to ask the question of a philosophy. It two who is the most important? With its two relation.
The house property rise in value that tall house price can let a poor is contractible difference
Ren Zhijiang:
You understand this not quite right, data also is done not quite rightly. Our because have 30,borrowing is, 40, 50, 60, 70% , differred of course. Head pay very tall, the scale leverage that borrows money to the individual is very low. 70% namely 30% , before me two days ask they want a few secondhand the data that the room trades, stone always says to build appoint clear away them, do not let him give me data.
I obtained data, secondhand the room trades inside, if 4 into, 5 into, 6 into, 7 into calculate on, they are 7 into head pay proportion tall. Lowermost is 4 into, 3 into 2 into have hardly. That is to say head paid cash is very much, be in so a borrowed bad Zhang rate is average in 0.25% the left and right sides. Some bad Zhang may be husband bumped into a car to die, paid without the person.
Beijing bank adds up in all borrow bad Zhang rate to be less than a RMB of 100 million, but all how many does bad Zhang have? Near 16 billion, you say this scale, because of the unit swim up and down especially. So borrow in China, won't resemble appearing at present stimulation is borrowed, because the United States is of 5% head pay, was equivalent to me paying rent, it is duty completely, a minute of money did not draw out my individual. Follow China so completely different, this is the first concept.
The 2nd concept, development business has 70% , the indebted rate of 80% , you made a mistake. Development business has 3 indebted rate, the first indebted rate is you want an absolutely and indebted rate, namely 80% it is indebted rate, the subtract that sells a house. Because call due in the house that I open to booking.
But I return your house, I won't bluff your money, because you had bought a house. So this money, my indebted rate has been cast was in on reinforced concrete, you want this subtract later, this cent is two kinds, one is a bank, another is bond of stock, hair, these two are different.
Having a few is roll roll is essential need not return, e.g. average loan. So if this 80 ％ were cut later, the indebted rate of major belongings is 30% . When his sale is taller, you count sale into when be in debt, he is indebted tall, sale gives subtract, this is due, I am in these money in bag. Because I want to return reinforcing steel bar and cement, calculative moment we often misunderstood these 3.
You belong to that misunderstanding, often say the indebted rate of 80% , which have so tall? You appear, enterprise of our iron and steel, civil aviaton is fast 120% , hai Hang 120% much.
But Where is plane? Have the money that did not pay off, but the plane is there. So you should issue computation from this kind of circumstance 120% when, with my asset other perhaps condition is compared right, different.
The media that be present calculates on, person of your neither one can say to understand a lot of problems. I cite a case, how much does house value income compare how many, what use is average price. Do you know what is premise? Inside the media that be present, neither one person can speak out.
The first it is the approximate number in income, the 2nd it is the approximate number in house price, the 3rd it is census register area, in the world in see the United States, the United States is announced, announce house price, did not get average. If use average, china is 0, why? Hainan 28 degrees, northeast loses 28 degrees, was done not have on average? You are tremendous mistake.
The 2nd it is income, wage income is divided inside American income how many, property income, banking income, china does not have the income of computational house inside all income. Be in the United States, when why saying it rises in house price, is individual consumption different? Because house price rises,be because I sold the house to finally,be can earn a lot of, or house mortgage loan does not have a problem.
Chinese lane became average, is you calculate room value 0? Do not have, so your media often says, tall meeting causes house price difference of the rich and the poor is pulled greatly tall, serious. The house property rise in value that tall house price can let a poor is contractible difference. My thought and your idea is so different, because you do not know actual condition.
Why? Lowermost income crowd, according to investigation, census investigation, the family of 6% above has house of the 2nd ring inside lowermost income. You can be envisaged, china is classified 7 times, lowest, low income, medium low income, medium income, medium good-paying, good-paying, highest income.
You check any, it is 7 classification, but family of our lowest income 70, 80% have a house. Highest income is 88% have a house. Differ probably with lowermost income 10 to 12 per cent.
So low income family is equal to without the room. The first welfare assigns the account room. The poor of old Beijing is welfare cent room, basically have a house. The 2nd, tear open change, the 3rd old city is transformed, the 4th it is applicable housing waits economy a moment etc.
Lowermost income family is equal to without the room, lowermost income family and highest income family are in e.g. the United States, the likelihood has housing to lead difference 30% to 40% , you had not calculated.
He gives my report, can see secondhand the room inside the room changes room scale very big. I ask he wants, he does not give me, is the number huge what be? Namely secondhand the room sells, after acquisition tremendous income, change a new building, I still have a large sum of deposit.
Cite a case, you see Tsinghua university has a teacher, by telegraphic bilk 16.8 million RMB, one flatlet. This teacher at ordinary times the room sold ability to have so much money, this is family of our most typical alleged low income or poor, he may calculate medium income, a month 10 thousand money are possible.
But change a room to gain domestic income through the room and upstart have, we press tall house price, 16.8 million can you buy? Buy 100 thousand is what make the same score rice secondhand room? It is OK still remnant 400, 5 million, spent quite. So you do not want such calculating, you are wrong.
So I emphasize particularly, flow into Beijing comer, because tall house price was broken by block, so I think, these relevant policy that come on stage, the most important is to let was not native to lose have these resource, we call public natural resources.
But actually this is to make public natural resources more inhomogenous. The room value that so I see with you is different, you often feel house price is limitation, what my individual looks is heavier is, in the development process of Chinese city, broke the requirement that town changes because of policy block? And block was broken let public natural resources, let the stage that can be more person had jointly and shares?
If this block is broken, that does not have resource forever with respect to these people, foreigner cannot use the resource of Beijing, still include other places. How can you progress so?
I do not have a law to accept best science and technology, the height that China reforms develops, among them one important is urban and rural difference, let everybody enjoy urban resource can termlessly. But now of this a lot of cities be restricted to buy, allow this thing, encountered a lot of obstacles.
It is the economy that can not affect China because of it next so, I feel won't, because everybody cannot use these best resource, original like us ancient time is called division take an examination ofing. Disappear of division pass an entrance examination, do not have division take an examination ofing. What look in I and your eye is different, what you often look is house price tall.
What I feel to affect is other issues, this word does not make a mistake.
05
I ask a question for my aunt, she is your vermicelli made from bean starch, she hears I want to come particularly excited. Bill of her Beijing house gave out, of Yan Jiao disrelish expensive, which do you feel to should be bought next?
Ren Zhijiang:
The question that you ask and a moment ago problem are same, want investment not to buy the most expensive house absolutely, you buy the house of a 170 thousand U.S. dollor, how can you turn over one times? You are bought ten thousand and one those who make the same score rice is very fast 20 thousand, so simple. I feel you go to school also learned in vain.
06
You a moment ago said change big house by little room, under your old education, the person that I discover the market to go up to there is this kind of idea now already very much. It is this finance was to become really common the means of this kind of conduct financial transactions of the person that buys a house.
Especially now, because I understand my periphery the friend of a lot of they are not to fry room and so on, they feel to issue that bit of Qian Yue in him hand to not worth more in this kind of circumstance money, the house became their consideration on respect of conduct financial transactions.
I do not know you are right the change of this kind of idea, do you feel it is good way? What is your evaluation? Thank.
All fortune are on the ground, because have income forever
Ren Zhijiang:
Chinese adage says, war gold at ordinary times, say on the history namely, when short of war, all fortune are on the ground, because have income forever. Be no good until fight, the ground is moved do not go, you put gold in bag to run. So Chinese adage has stated reason, this truth arrived same also today.
China has not accomplished a major task, it is town change. You agree to see Japan, town of Japanese foamy moment is changed 78% , did China arrive? Occurrence foamy city basically is town is changed lead more than 70% .
The town that China can exceed 70% now is changed of rate not quite much, according to Beijing calculate, of Shanghai not much also, in 63 ％ . In other words, chinese the ancients is early tell you, fixed assets appreciation is best.
From Chinese reform you can see, why at the beginning did joint state-private ownership confiscate means of subsistence and fixed assets first? Because it is the costliest. What does your investment cast then? All media have a major mistake, not clear what doing namely is investment.
If say the country invests, the skill room that develops business makes investment, because affect,arrived GDP. Private with private between, include to buy a share, do not make investment greatly. We can cry in other words finance invests or the individual invests, do not have any relations with share price.
You bought his house, he bought his share, he bought his bond, is that private between change change? Went up 1000 times did not use. Not better than provides bit of revenue.
But development business is skill room, buy iron and steel, buy cement, buy door window, became GDP. Almost all media, you used economy of a term from solid to empty, invest especially from solid to empty. You all media use a fault this word, what makes investment from solid to empty? The financial investment between person and person calls theory, because be exchanged between individual and individual.
You turn the stock into bond, bond becomes deposit, concern without a minute of money with GDP. Development business has. So we have a few policy now, cannot borrow money to development business, this mixed, cannot mix.
The loan that gives development trader calculated GDP certainly, give the individual's loan, my finance is not GDP. With national economy growth does not have any relations, these two ideas it is not clear that you are done as media person, the article that you write is no good smellily, it is wrong.
Do I say this does not have a truth? You go checking economics, allusion of economics big character says this problem very much to be clear about. Increase prospective income, and decrease current consumption makes investment. And change even if turn deposit into bond not to make investment, be called finance invests or the individual invests, this is two concepts.
If you make medium confused, cheated complete China people. Confused our design carrying a layer on the head even, they also feel these two invest is, wrong. The question that you raise is this problem, want to make clear Hunan, these two problems are not a thing.
The residence that talks about me so my finance, we say a process that we develop only, tell everybody how to judge pair of faults. But the thing of the basiccest rule of economics, you cannot be disobeyed, you cannot be confused.
If you become a journalist confused, our common people is miserable, be cheated by you every day, how are we vivid? So I feel you want to had been done, otherwise I say the question that you raise what you carry became wrong. Often raise wrong question, I must scold you every day.
