The whole world is main heavy goods price is bullish
Since this year, market of main heavy goods is in the whole world while whole warms up, market structure splits up somewhat. Metallic price whole drops in temperature, black metal and nonferrous metal price continue to split up; Produce price keeps relatively stable, show small to go up raise posture. Look into second half of the year, price of whole of global heavy goods will continue to keep gentle rise --
Since this year, suffer world economy to anabiosis, trade friction upgrades the element influence such as politics of the fringe that reach the ground, market of main heavy goods is in the whole world while whole warms up, market structure splits up somewhat. The sources of energy such as oil kind afterwards of heavy goods price was jumped considerably last year litre 28% later, continue to be climbed significantly this year litre; Metallic price whole drops in temperature, black metal and nonferrous metal price continue to split up; Produce price keeps relatively stable, show small to go up raise posture. Look into second half of the year, price of whole of global heavy goods will continue to keep gentle rise, but different product splits up as before. World bank representative is chief Shangdayana Dewalayang indicates economist: "Global economy growth is accelerated and demand rises is to drive much to heavy goods rises in price and did not come heavy goods price is bullish anticipated main factor. "Global economy growth is accelerated and demand rises is to drive much to heavy goods rises in price and did not come heavy goods price is bullish anticipated main factor..
Price of the sources of energy considerably violent wind rises
Ground fringe politics becomes a hotspot
January up to now, international oil price all the way the raise on concussion, already rose at present to base price of the cereal at the beginning of 2016 one times much. The report of oil market monthly that Ou Peike issues shows, the Europe admire June restrains one basket oil price this year all valence is 68.43 dollars / bucket, rise considerably than the beginning of the year 36% ; The corresponding period oil price is Bulunte 71.16 dollars / bucket, rise compared to the same period 35.1% , germany oil price is Kesasi 65.46 dollars / bucket, rise 31.1% . Fiducial price all records crude oil of 3 big international 3 go up into above, its are main the reason has 3: It is Oupeike and blame Ou Peike the associated reduction of output of petroliferous country; 2 it is global economy get warm again after a cold spell is carried brace up crude oil demand; 3 it is the United States exits Yi nucleus agreement and menace upgrades the punish to Iran.
International oily city will maintain supply and demand " close balance " . Ou Peike is forecasted, demand of crude oil day is 98.85 million pails this year, increase 1.65 million pails than last year, and day demand will continue to increase 2019, the likelihood closes more than 100 million pails greatly first. Asia, Latin America and middle east country rise steadily to the demand of crude oil. From supply a respect to look, oil daily output is country of gram of the admire that be not Europe this year 59.54 million pails, than going up year increase 2 million pails, next year will continue to increase, increase production basically just is Si Tan of the United States, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Kazakstan and England. Europe admire overcomes 15 members country the crude daily output this year is 32.33 million pails. As a result of economic get into trouble, latin America is main and petroliferous country the crude output of Venezuela is ceaseless and atrophic. Data shows, this year first quarter, appoint crude daily output is 1.62 million pails, 2 quarters fall reach 1.52 million pails, apparent under last year. And Libyan the increase production with Nigeria, and speed of shale oil increase production exceeds anticipate, can alleviate on certain level the tight situation of international oily city.
Henceforth period of time, ground fringe politics will become the main factor that affects oil price. Once the United States upgrades to Iranian punish, limit export of Iranian crude oil, international oily city is broken evenly, oil price will be climbed considerably litre. This year first half of the year, iranian crude daily output is 3.81 million pails, offer outlet for the most part, main sale is mixed to East Asia South Asia country. The near future, the United States and Iranian become enemies, lie between empty each other to rancor each other. American threaten should ban oil export of Iran, channel of at present of wood of suddenly Er of block of Iranian criterion menace, cut off the oil that includes chief of a tribe of couplet of sand spy, Kuwait, A, Iraq to wait for thalassic country marine circuitry. This will be brought to international energy market " catastrophic " the gender is sequential.
Metallic prices continues to split up
Supply and demand remains to form evenly
Black metal and nonferrous metal price go situation continue to split up, it is this year the mainest feature of metallic price quotations. Of iron ore price dropped to offset greatly of other goods strong, metallic price whole drops in temperature. At present market of global iron ore appears the situation that supplies concentration of oligarch, demand. Develop of fresh water river valley, force, need and need business of big main mine offers develop and FMG4 the 70% above that commerce of global iron ore measures, in the meantime, as the whole world the biggest iron ore consumes national China, become the dominant factor with fluctuant price of influence iron ore. The phases that at present demand of global iron ore rises quickly already ended as Chinese demand slow down, pattern of supply and demand of international iron ore entered new level, short-term inside supply superfluous phenomenon to be changed hard. C.I.F was mine of pink of 58% grade dry basis July 52.52 dollars / ton, the month than January all valence 57.99 dollars / ton want low 10% . World bank releases " heavy goods market is looked into " the report is forecasted, iron ore is average 2018 the price will fall considerably 2017 relatively 18.6% .
Next defeat of iron ore price, stimulated what iron and steel of a few nations consumes to increase. Indian government puts forward crude steel to produce per year the end that estimates 300 million tons, plan to invest 10 trillion rupee to have spread before 2030 can. International steel assist data shows, before this year 6 months, crop of world crude steel 881.5 million tons, grow 4.6% compared to the same period, raise yield 39.1 million tons; June, global crude steel is produced can utilization rate 78.5% , increase 3.8 percent compared to the same period, annulus comparing increases 1 percent.
In respect of nonferrous metal prices, international copper industry considers to organize (ICSG) thinks, global copper was produced 2018 can add fast reach fall after a rise 2.7% right-and-left low, epicycle produces can outspread end, cupreous price rises small. World Bureau of Metal Statistics (the report that WBMS) issues shows, breach of global copper city is 197 thousand tons first half of the year this year, supply shortage at the cupreous market last year greatly far 65 thousand tons, apparent also prep above 2016 69 thousand tons of annual, this report gives gap of copper mine supply to be being pulled gradually big. World bank is forecasted, average price is the copper this year 6118 dollars / ton, relatively small 2017 rise 1.1% .
Aluminous prices and copper are very similar. As the whole world the biggest aluminous production country goes stock goes producing can advance further, chinese aluminous crop is added fast will put delay further, supply gap will magnify. Data of Russia aluminous trade shows, global aluminous city supplied short ullage to will expand to from 1.3 million tons of 2017 2018 about 1.7 million tons, aluminous price is put in the motivation that go up. World bank is forecasted, average price is annual aluminium this year 1968 dollars / ton, relatively small 2017 rise 0.9% . WBMS data shows, this year first half of the year, the market of lead, nickel, stannum is supplied put in shortage phenomenon, this will continue to drive nonferrous metal price to go tall. Gold price suffers beautiful Europe associate policy is tightened up and fall after a rise, world bank is forecasted, gold price dropped small 2018 1.0% . Since this year, gold demand presents fatigued and weak state, gross of demand of 2 quarters gold slides reach 964.3 tons, for since 2009 new low, market of the corresponding period is supplied appear the growth of 3% , achieve 1120.2 tons.
Provisionment is overall and smooth
Demand puts delay value bear pressure
Current, global population increase rate shows farther downtrend, grow slowdown as demand of system of main and burgeoning economy, wastage of staple food of average per capita tends saturated, grow to produce and commissariat demand inside global limits put delay, and supply side keeps smooth. Weave jointly via adding up to organization and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations " 2018, agriculture was looked into 2027 " year report shows, production of produce of global great majority will grow steadily, major cereal, flesh kind, dairy produce and fish crop are achieved record-breaking level, among them grain inventory level already rose to the history highest. Nevertheless, suffer big damage caused by waterlogging to kill or the soup influence such as drought little rain, commissariat of a few countries is lean, existence supplies shortage phenomenon. Below action of supply demand relations, should look into a report to predict future 10 years main produce price will keep low.
Data shows, global wheat is successive 5 years of increase production, at present inventory already amounted to 268 million tons. Soja, rice still is in produce be more than needed structure, current inventory mixes 141 million tons for 98.32 million tons respectively. Suffer the price is low in recent years confuse an impact, corn cultivates an area to glide, output falls, main area by produce be more than need to turn to need to produce inadequacy, period end stock falls considerably 10% . Produce the change that wants a relationship to be brought to corn price prop up, in addition, because corn can regard industry as the raw material of alcohol, go up as price of international market crude move, it is good to make profit to corn price accordingly. The expert points out, supply and demand of current and most produce is main the face slants loose, will for a long time look, the price is in low, drop the space is not large; The individual breed such as corn is produced need a relation to be tightened slightly, the price may appear seasonal on raise.
