On August 19 message, website of government of rural Ministry of Agriculture is released, jiangsu saves division of state of sea of city of the harbor that connect the cloud to produce epidemic situation of African swine fever one case. This has been epidemic situation of swine fever of the 3rd Africa of domestic. It is reported, current, this epidemic situation already got be controllinged effectively.
On August 3, new developed area of north of Shenyang of city of Liaoning province Shenyang produces epidemic situation of swine fever of live pig Africa one case, this is China produces epidemic situation of African swine fever first. On August 16, shambles of some food company produces development of economy of Henan Zhengzhou city one case epidemic situation of African swine fever. That day end dish, double assemble development remaining part dish show collapse to drop stop, pork concept collective drops, wen share, herd primary share drop bigger.
A kind of acute that African swine fever is the pig that virus of African swine fever causes, hot sex, height contacts sexual animal contagion, have come on the feature with process weak point, tall mortality, do not belong to person cultivate in all sicken. The epidemic situation before this basically distributings to be mixed in hamster, Russia African area, the Asian country that our country is affection of plague of pig of first report Africa. At present African swine fever does not have effective vaccine, the method kills control to give priority to with attacking.
Actually, epidemic situation of African swine fever breeds to field of A stock market board piece negative effect has been reflected somewhat. Short-term in light of, as another epidemic situation happening, the panicky mood of the market will be climbed litre, allocate and transport plus follow-up live pig not free, price of pig of epidemic disease area will face the pressure of be issued to lower levels. But in long-term, this or will drive hog cycle to invert ahead of schedule.
On one hand, although African swine fever is impersonal cultivate in all diseased, but still can have concern, predicting dweller will reduce pork consumption, cause supply exceeds demand finally, live pig price lasts sound foundation.
On the other hand, if African swine fever is large-scale erupt, the government will take block to epidemic disease area, attack kill, harmless change processing, disinfection to wait deal with measure, type of bluff of live pig supply will be brought about to reduce inside short time, the supply demand relations of the live pig on this will deep market, or drive hog cycle to be greeted ahead of schedule invert.
Specific in light of, short-term live pig breeds industrial catenary to go up general bear pressure. The affirmation of be the first to be affected is advocate livelihood pig breeds appear on the market company, suffer consumption low fan, the double pressure that pig price drops, especially the relevant company of epidemic disease area suffers an effect rate is the latest. Live pig of field of A stock market breeds relevant see early days article " urgent! African swine fever will raid already had show collapse to drop stop " .
Additional, hopeful of sudden epidemic situation is abate the demand that the beans dregses of rice, feed carries valence or suffocate suffocate. On August 15, because the beans dregses of rice,rise in price, feed of the rising sun, power 9 vessels, big north farming wait to issue an announcement in succession, all pigs move 50 yuan on makings price / ton. And the outbreak as swine fever, breed door short-term the enthusiasm of filling column is reduced, or the pace that will restrict feed to rise on certain level. Photograph of field of A stock market shuts city firm to have: New hope, greatly animal husbandry of abundant of boreal farming, standing grain.
Of course, except negative effect, to partial company, the outbreak of swine fever is having openly effect however.
Above all, the fryer that replaces consumption breeds board piece. This logic is very plain, suffer consumptive psychology to affect, african swine fever will restrain the market to consume apiration to porky, replace consumptive hopeful to look up, be being replaced best is chicken undoubtedly. This or drive gallinaceous price to rise. From the point of newest data, gallinaceous seedling price rises quickly last week, wool chicken price maintains perch to move. A shut city firm to have: Profit unripe share, civilian wait with share of share, world of holy farming development, celestial being.
In the meantime, vaccine move guarantee industry hopeful benefit. From the point of epidemic prevention angle, below current and special period, the demand that waits for a respect to perfecting immune system will add live pig company apparently, move outstandingly protect enterprise hopeful to be benefited. Shut city firm to have: Biology share, medium herd share, Tian Kangsheng content.
Finally, a fault on the right side of industry bibcock hopeful. The happening of epidemic situation, the negative effect with be caused short-term or certain to demand, long-term or accelerate an industry to produce can go out clear, bring about hog cycle to come ahead of schedule. And the large breed aquatics that what have system of admirable epidemic prevention enterprise, the capability of counteractive risk is stronger, hopeful shifts to an earlier date from hog cycle the benefit in inverting.
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