A method of all adjusting control of estate, undertake classified, can thick cent is the following kinds:
Administrative adjusting control --
"Be restricted to buy, be restricted to make work, be restricted to borrow, price fixing, be restricted earth is patted, be restricted business changes " the administration that waits for a variety of measure to be an organic whole changes adjusting control system. Demand is rigid, suppress is temporary. No matter be rigid demand or investment demand, in anticipate unconverted circumstance falls, when untie a person of administrative adjusting control, in the again can devoted main forces that buy a house. Accordingly, administrative measure is only demand mandatory after delaying, cannot resolve the inherent contradiction that house price rises truly.
Financial adjusting control --
Financial adjusting control includes demand and supply two respects, demand side wraps draw together head to pay scale, loan interest rate (standard interest rate and scale of bank discount rise) , loan specified amount is spent, the financing outside loan efficiency, field is superintended wait for dimension to spend; Supply side includes to develop the policy such as financing of mark of loan, bond, blame, equity to estate adjust. Control the lever of the person that buy a house, control the capital lever that develops business.
Land supply adjusting control --
More or less is of land supply housing market equilibrium of supply and demand and the main base that run smoothly, land supply and population flow into city of line of Chinese just a little and 34 lines city to hang, while 34 lines city offers the ground in great quantities, sale of hunger of on sale of land of city of line of just a little, short-term can developing land to be not worth is those who cause tall look forward to of price of house of town of a gleam of is medium extended account.
Policy so much, the tool is so complete, but why to control price of a house?
So, must think over.
Think over one: Weigh administrative adjusting control, light economy shift
Estate views population for a long time, metaphase watchs land, short-term see finance. Policy of short-term adjusting control, or exciting demand is released quickly, or after depressive demand is delayed, release, it is short-term expedient only, the essential contradiction with inextricability long-term lopsided supply and demand.
Epicycle adjusting control is short-term administrative measure " innovate " ceaseless, "Be restricted to buy, price fixing, be restricted to make work, be restricted earth is patted, be restricted business changes " make data of macroscopical house price short-term and cooling, microcosmic go up, new dish open quotation makes work namely of exhaust " the heat that buy a house " appear in many cities, the long-term contradiction that explains heat city supply and demand is lopsided still exists. Pass much administrative adjusting control, can take temporary solution cannot effect a permanent cure.
Think over 2: Control demand again, light increase supply
Epicycle adjusting control and past are same, heavy demand carries policy, be like " tone head pays proportion " , " tone loan interest rate " , " be restricted to buy " , " be restricted to make work " , " fall trade agree duty " etc. Demand controls policy is provisionality policy only, the demand after becoming loose can rebound considerably. And the policy that supply carries, if adjust land housing of supply, development is safeguard project, perfect the long-term strategy that the ability such as market of the room that rent is balance supply and demand.
Central repeated orders emphasizes increasing land supply, however, truly a few places fall to real point, till 18 years each district returns ground king frequency to go out first half of the year, showed the inadequacy that land supplies.
Think over 3: With the place the target conflicts in the center of
Estate market is the market that has local distinguishing feature extremely, local government defends the territory of his country have duty, should load adequately case " because the city uses strategy " the task, can be in actual in, also put in a few problems. Defray of some local government is excessive depend on income of land sell one's own things and estate relevant tax cost, it is the person be benefited with local estate hot market actually. Because this adjusting control counterpoises,the adjusting control after transfer to a lower level reachs a place evolves " passive type adjusting control " , local government often is in the ability after house price rises considerably moves to intervene, lack restrains a mechanism oneself.
Additionally local government is bought through be restricted on one hand, price fixing, be restricted to make work, be restricted earth sends control room price, be in on the other hand a few " small policy " on use underhand method, to the influence that tightens up to adjusting control, for example each district publishs a talent to introduce policy thick and fast since 17 years March. Because the city applies plan to fall in the center of with local target conflict makes adjusting control efficiency becomes low, be 16 years 930 since tighten up cycle to cost long, get effective slow prime cause.
Think over 4: Weigh short-term adjusting control, grow effect mechanism gently
From long-term tell, a housing system that fits our country national condition just is one country what estate market makes the same score firm health is essential. Will not begin from supply, transfer to be built to lasting effect mechanism from policy of short-term adjusting control, transfer from administrative measure economic shift, give priority to from commodity attribute it is very important to transfer to build the housing system that emphasizes attribute of the people's livelihood to compose.
However, actually till this cycle in hind paragraph, just put forward fragmentarily " housing of mutual property right " , " hire carry out coequal " , " talent apartment " wait for bridal chamber to change system embryonic form. Be born of lasting effect mechanism is slow, be born is difficult, cannot change the people anticipation to house price tardy.
Summary: Actually house price thinks control is not hard, but all sorts of rich were full of to weichi inside this, the adjusting control that brings about each rounds so became short-term adjusting control, look to coming for a long time, of house price form profit of business of cost of land price, construction, development, duty to expend these a few, besides development business profit can adjust besides, the others is in a few times when the river rises the boat goes up too. How can be housing price controlled to rise again below such major premise trend?
Epicycle adjusting control falls in all sorts of administration adjusting control, finance adjusting control, house price lives already firmly, major person anticipates to short-term house price had produced change -- horizontal dish, depreciate. Did not come for some time, before the end of the year, adjusting control continues to raise the price of the commodities certainly, adjusting control scarcely can loosen, building city scarcely will be fervent, house price cannot rise certainly.
But will for a long time look, basic system is not changed, house price rises for a long time the climate is constant. Be in now fall without the proper investment, channel that keep a cost, common people can be done is -- quarter fund, await the next time opportunity, leak huntingn/arc repair the leaky part of a roof, copy a copy.
When appearing as to the opportunity of Jinan, because of every supply of an area, price, development form a complete set differs, the time place affirmation of the fall after a rise that hit a top is different also, we can one by one piece the area goes unscrambling an analysis.
