One, near future prices is summed up
Draw near before mid-autumn two days, egg price is unexpected take a sudden turn and become worse rapidly, from sell an area to arrive produce an area to drop generally amount to 5 wool to control, north of its middle east is local had been close to 4 yuan / jin. Actually this drops in expected, egg price repeated pattern of how many years, it is early only day and a few evening distinction of a few days. Specific and character, this drops to basically bring about by two elements:
1, already arrived mid-autumn, festal effect subsidise, demand is reduced
Why annual egg price meets summer rise, because can have high temperature reduction in production every year, also have every year mid-autumn stock up, the level that is high temperature only is different, the strength of festal effect is distinguished somewhat, so egg price rises extent differs somewhat. Now have been mid-autumn, festal effect subsidise, demand is reduced, egg value is fair of extent drop inevitable.
2, trafficker fears generally tall, take goods discretion
Although today summerly egg price rises particularly suddenly, but annual rule is placed here, draw near the more mid-autumn, egg price is higher, of egg business fear tall mood more serious. This vital link, know perfectly well want to cheapen, who to change to be able to reduce replenish onr's stock, the egg business of partial area is flat stop close. Breed at this o'clock door should understand, egg business also should raise the home to paper a mouth, operator must do everybody reduce a risk.
2, drop more healthy
This drops breed door need not panicky, drop more healthy, price letting an egg falls readily a few days, drop amount of actual amount of livestock on hand come out, authority is clear to prospective prices. Price of this summer egg rises big, of duration long, old and infrequent, this enough explains amount of current amount of livestock on hand is really small, the growth of amount of livestock on hand won't be accomplished in one move, will be a long-term course, price of the egg after the section has from beginning to end prop up. Festal effect subsidise, but the egg has just needed, 4 prices of 89 are impossible to be maintained for a long time, but unapt also drop depressed, breed door should have hope.
National Day of all through the ages grows false metropolis to stimulate food to consume, marriage banquet is for instance frequent during National Day, for instance relatives and friends meets during National Day. Egg price came down, fear tall nonexistent, egg business people the goods of this equipment still wants to have. General National Day grows a holiday, business of very much big egg should rest a few days, stock up can be finished before have a holiday, keep within limits of this will certain level is current egg price continues to drop greatly.
The test with egg real value will grow a holiday 7 days in National Day later, business of the egg that sell a division has a holiday, inventory yield a division is accumulated, whole industry catenary lasted moving situation will end the long 0 inventory of two months. It is amount of livestock on hand merely quantity on the low side causes this summer impossibly such go up greatly, how to explain otherwise in July of the first ten days of a month broken 3, the amount of livestock on hand July should be lower than 8-9 month, cannot ignore 8-9 month so the action of all sorts of short-term factors.
And all sorts of short-term factors after National Day subsidise: Festal effect ends thoroughly, high temperature reduction of output restores basically, inventory work up, air temperature is reduced open yield chicken newly to enter peak yield an egg quickly, these circumstances will make produce a division all valence continues to maintain hard in 4 yuan of upper part.
The author thinks, after National Day before the Spring Festival, quantity of amount of livestock on hand will be chased on an inferior foundation grow increasingly, egg price restores big probability to come of 4-6 month go situation, in 3.3 to 4 yuan wander, have during brief cut the risk of 3, but won't last a few days, breed a whole to hold gain.
Lasted to this summer in June from last year, breed door continuously gain, this stimulates filling column necessarily. If say last year is to produce can a year, this year is to produce a year when can restore undoubtedly, because this author is right next year the prices first half of the year not dare hopeful. Actually this from egg futures close strong far weak, further contract price is lower, can see apparently. Using prices of current merchandise on hand to coach futures trades is incorrect, but each contract come combinative futures trend of future of analytic merchandise on hand, very accurate however, this also is the meaning place with futures industrial service.
Go up drop to have market decision oneself, hope breed aquatics door can rational face, do not have the prices that goes up not to drop only. Did not rise in price all sorts of reasonable, cheapened with respect to all sorts of plot, this is the contempt to market rule! The egg is common consumable only, want 10 yuan to go up really / jin, how is common people accepted. Esteem market, be thankful consumer, this is the character with every necessary practitioner.
3, 1901 future walk along egg futures situation
To 1901 agreement long-term go situation, the author thinks investor wants to hold main area at 2 o'clock:
1, amount of livestock on hand measures base on the low side, 01 agreement agio;
2, in laying hen amount of livestock on hand the volume rises gradually after the section.
Because amount of livestock on hand shows growth trend, the egg is supplied will gradually comfortable, 01 agreement big trend still slants empty. But 01 be in agio at present, and on the low side of base of amount of livestock on hand, 01 complete a business transaction period during be in Spring Festival stock up again, this how many meeting is restrained of 01 drop space. Because this author thinks, future 01 agreement slant with concussion empty look upon is relatively reasonable, 4000 around namely 1901 hard the coping of exceed, but unilateral drops quickly won't appear, concussion be issued to lower levels will be big probability, can have for many times during repeatedly.
Above is discussed and suggest to represent point of view of egg gentleman individual only, offer reference only, cannot regard investment as the basis, if produce loss accordingly, egg gentleman is not in charge of without exception.
Wish: Happy mid-autumn, good luck!
(be over) egg gentleman Yao Wei on September 24, 2018 the night mid-autumn
