Constant points to National Day archives
Chinese business news observes dispatch of net finance and economics: On October 2, mainland National Day grows a holiday the following day, holiday of Hong Kong National Day has ended, the stock market leaves, fierce, drop greatly 2.38% .
A leek experienced a car October 1, grow Shu Yi tone, go straight towards Xiang Shi and distance, harbor leek discovers he is blocking a heart up however, and not be a day, it is a likelihood full 4 days.
Annual National Day has National Day grade, if we also give constant to point to an archives, what performed on October 2 is " kill quietly " , what performed on October 3 is " struggle hard " , what performed on October 4 is " defeat utterly is retreated " .
On October 2, after National Day is false the first trades day, boreal water breaks shed the 3rd to trade day (note: Harbor from last week four begin to shut) , constant points to drop greatly 2.38% , the country points to drop greatly 2.39% . Drop this greatly a few without omen, in the evening on October 1 point to jump go up, hong Kong was killed quietly on October 2, go low all the way, do not take rebound.
On October 3, the 2nd trades day, constant points to low 1.05% , at 9 o'clock after half open quotation pick up quickly, a few struggle hard, break up for a time red, but go finally weak, closing quotation constant points to drop 0.13% , the country points to go up 0.29% .
On October 4, national Day archives trades the 3rd times day, yesterday struggle hard falls without the circumstance of fruit, today harbor the defeat utterly that perform is retreated, drop not only defeated early yesterday dish low, still continue to go downward, closing quotation constant points to drop 1.73% , drop for a time nearly 2% , the country points to close drop 2.21% , drop for a time 2.54% .
3 trade day, constant points to drop go 4.19% , the country points to drop go 4.27% .
Where road does not;burst;ulcerate;fester Cheng Jun that?
In light of the index of 2 class industry that uses WIND, car and component steeped fall 6 percent, software, medicine, finance, estate drops before also leaning, food drink is fought quite drop.
Say more block a heart up, be in harbor when dropping greatly, the flower of Pacific Ocean the other shore leaves bright-coloured, path point to innovate repeatedly tall, mark general 500 show with accept performance is very steady also, european Japan still also calculates firm, it is small only drop.
This shows, erroneous does not carry in the day, and in our oneself. Is that market in after all anxious what?
2
Dollar index rises greatly
The person that goes vacationing today can open software of mobile phone prices possibly now and then, look, alas, off shore RMB drops broken 6.9, disastrous.
Actually the RMB is what can carry very much very much recently, because the dollar is very strong really recently, hard land carried the RMB a few days, still had produced Jing fetch to drop on October 2, drop suddenly broken 6.9, but close very quickly.
But in the dollar strong impact falls, off shore RMB drops once more today defeated 6.9.
Dollar index is so strong, have main area factor.
The economy of American home is powerful, this reflected the growth of GDP and unemployment rate to go low not just. A lot of people are looking forward to an US stock to die dish, american building city dies dish, but tell really, the United States is compared now 2007 second health wants before borrowing the crisis a lot of.
for instance house price, before although say American house price,exceeding the crisis, but both have Yun Ni however not.
Because of the first, the lever level of American family was in a few years all the time in the past fall.
The 2nd, rate of mortgage loan break a contact is in drop continuously.
The 3rd, buy rate is less than the sky of the United States that rent a house 7% , be located in the lowermost level since 1990, the most building that this indicates the market is medium can be hired go out.
Still for instance company department, lever also is in drop.
The United States superintends a layer to be in those who consider relaxing financial system to superintend now, why? Because the loan of American bank holds deposit,arrived than falling old new low, this and 2008 also is great difference.
Financial system is such, strong although reduced a risk,superintend, but bring about capital to use efficiency to drop, then the bank begins all sorts of go canvassing governments to loosen superintend, bury next seeds to issue financial crisis one round next. What at present loan holds deposit is lower, big probability returns the seed of crisis of banking of ministry of this beautiful country to was not sowed.
In such economy main area support falls, the dollar obtained another to prop up, beautiful couplet store add breath. Beautiful recently couplet store curule make a speech to endorse for American economy for many times, for instance beautiful last night couplet store Weir expresses chairman Bao: American economy is very vigorous, unemployment rate is in 20 years to come lowermost level; We are devoting oneself to to let economy keep outspread, predicting economy dilate still will comparative for some time continuously.
Cloth of Chu Xuan of beautiful on September 26 couplet inside year add the 3rd times breath, yesterday evening the United States releases small blame farming data, super- anticipate, this alluded the probability that the 4th second interest increases by December 2018 very big.
Below this kind of circumstance, be worthy of be most the Italy of hole pig teammate still jumps out to increase chaos, be in budget deficit surely 2.4% of GDP, 1.6% what before exceeding greatly, the market anticipates. This means Italian government tomorrow to will increase loan, and national debt dimensions of Italy already not low, occupy GDP scale to be in 130% the left and right sides, the Europe debt crisis 2011 has been been before add add inflammatory details to. Him Italy a debt double kill do not say, still rancor dead euro, more let a dollar go up situation if rainbow.
Had carried before, RMB add dollar, visit home macroscopical (have without Jiang Bing) , 2 see Europe (have without strong pull by hand) , euro jumped now, it is very difficult that the RMB is carried painstakingly.
What does the RMB devalue to you can be affected again? Give two data, one is the data of bureau of the canal outside the country, the external debt remaining sum of Chinese full requirements 1.84 trillion dollar; Another comes from wall street daily, since 2018 Asian area (do not calculate Japan) dollar debt distributes scale is 185 billion dollar, among them close half comes from Chinese company. So, you can see, the influence that the RMB devalues.
So, you also can see, cost the company that gets dollar effect drops greatly, for instance inside room (dollar debt) , for instance aviation (dollar debt adds an airplane) .
3
Beautiful debt yield is new tall
What run paralell with dollar index is yield of American national debt, couplet is in the beauty store add breath and American economy data prop up below, beautiful debt yield goes up all the way, beautiful today debt 10 years period yield is broken through 3.2% , achieve since June 2011 new tall.
Innovation of beautiful debt yield is tall churn market nerve is not any more, had happened a few times first half of the year this year. Almost every time the market calls a wolf to come, but the wolf came is to want those who distinguish to have actually.
Because of with respect to the United States character, its interest rate rises is beautiful couplet store drive actively, mean beautiful couplet actively store adding the wallop that already careful consideration crosses it before breath, because this wolf came,big probability is false.
But to a lot of other countries character, interest rate rises may be passive, by the beautiful couplet that the palm accuses global money gate store add breath drive. These countries, often some earlier annual interest added a large number of thick line with the monetary environment with comfortable whole world and extremely low interest rate, did not go in time again lever.
Be in before " stock market of 3 quarters whole world answer dish: Interest rate goes up step by step, receive fall how to be operated " had said, the crisis that comes from 2008 10 years, the United States and Europe are going lever, rising market is adding lever. Interest rate goes up now, rising market is equivalent to is to stepping on steel wire, counteractive risk ability is very poor, one pace also cannot misstep. For instance before the Turkey that before long the money dies, lever is added very badly.
And the dual impact that returns meeting overlay dollar to go strong, because their dollar debt is same also not low.
China also is among them, adding lever 10 years in the past is very fierce, blame banking is private branch (include enterprise and family) indebted occupy GDP to exceed 200% . Some newspaper says lever to had entered firm lever phase at present, go actually lever has not begun truly, the rate that just increases lever puts delay.
In the past as beautiful couplet store add breath, since 2017, can see, loan of rise of standard interest rate takes our bank than apparent promotion, from 2017 of the beginning of the year 52% the left and right sides arrives at present 75% the left and right sides, this shows loan interest rate is going on average tall.
Hong Kong also is such, blame banking is private of the branch indebted the proportion that holds GDP exceeded 300% . This beautiful couplet store add breath hind, of Hong Kong best interest rate (P) also added. I am in " stock market of 3 quarters whole world answer dish: Interest rate goes up step by step, how to operate next " in this P future that showed Hong Kong is met as beautiful couplet store add breath continue to climb litre.
Beautiful couplet store when can you collect a hand? From September the latticedot matrix graph of FOMC conference looks, still can add 2018, can add 3 times 2019.
Beautiful last night couplet store the speech of Er of chairman Bao Wei is such: Interest rate still slants comfortable, level of distance neutral interest rate still has very a paragraph long distance.
This shows, with a lot of people predicting United States will die dish, beautiful couplet store monetary policy should change direction immediately contrary, beautiful couplet store the length that adds breath cycle to may compare an imagination.
Chinese Ministry of finance announced to plan to issue debt of 3 billion dollar on October 3, this is inside year the 2nd, also was 2004 since the 3rd. At present interest rate has not been knocked calm, but OK and affirmative is, the influence that it can be gone up by beautiful debt interest rate, it is national debt likewise after all, it is dollar plan likewise. And when this interest rate can become Chinese company to issue dollar debt again fiducial.
Come so, the company cost pressure that sends dollar debt can go up as beautiful debt yield and increase.
4
Macroscopical economy is exasperate
In the raise on interest rate during, with American economy to very contrary is, chinese economic situation is not hopeful.
Although macroscopical economy of China is not poor first half of the year, no matter be,look from GDP data, or electricenergy production looks, but the view with common market is macroscopical economy will worsen.
GDP divides piece: Exit, consumption and investment, look 3 person trend, although GDP from 2016 the end of the year has to rebound, but in 3 index, export only actually add fast have pick up, other two are to continue of fall after a rise. This makes clear, this economy rebounds to basically be driven by exit.
The unusual worth that eliminate exports, export at present add fast maintain in these a few years of perch. But the uncertainty that this growth engine can face trade friction to go up now. Trade friction actual combat begins from July, what see at present is, the exit amount September is added compared to the same period fast for 9.8% , relatively in front a few months dropped 2 percent.
Social consumable total volume of retail sales is added fast continuously fall after a rise, but if fractionize will look, car turnover is successive 4 months glide to make a person possibly afraid more compared to the same period. The car belongs to defray to compare big optional spending, when consumer situation changes to differ or anticipate pessimism, general meeting reduces the consumption to it. Put in the element that a lot of consumer situations become poor first half of the year, for instance the stock market steeps fall brought fortune shrink, still P2P explodes thunder.
Fixed investment also is in drop continuously, can maintain this to add fast thanks to even estate invests, maintained 10% of the left and right sides add fast. But if invest estate invest estate,fractionation looks, eliminate land purchases cost, actually investment is added fast glide. That is to say, be being used at building tool of project, installation project, equipment to purchase investment drop compared to the same period actually. Whole has been behaved, basically be land purchase cost increase, this basically may be land rises in price bring.
If macroscopical aggravation happens in the whole world to attack street when, that everybody turns on the water together it may not be a bad idea passes. But present problem is, american economy is very good, beautiful couplet Chu Tie the heart wants add breath undertake after all, this was bothered.
The State Council asked vigorous finance policy is more vigorous July, firm monetary policy wants degree of tightness measurable, this basically is fixed position turns on the water afresh. But the become divided as a result of monetary policy, the space that China turns on the water can suffer from beginning to end be restricted, additionally monetary policy splits up overly meet those who increase a RMB to devalue pressure, this increased the pressure of dollar debt again.
5
Trade conflict
Trade conflict was 2018 a keyword, appeared in the National Day archives that constant points to a kind new likelihood.
On September 30, the United States and Canada make a statement first, with respect to trade agreement of North America oneself replace cost to reach consensus, this means the beautiful the Three Kingdoms that add Chinese ink to will be signed " the United States - Mexico - Canadian agreement (USMCA) " , conflict of North America trade drops in temperature.
This is meddlesome originally, can make person longing United States and China final on commerce also can reach some kind of consensus.
BUG is USMCA the 32nd, this clause sets, the agreement just plans to be the same as each " blame market country " when discussion trade concerns, must shift to an earlier date 3 months know to meet additionally two members the country is in the time of 6 months await its " examine and approve " .
Here does not make a comment more, whether does this clause have in the light of bad also to say, and look.
6
Epilogue
National Day archives is the last tomorrow trade day, what to guess Hong Kong stock market to you can be shown to receive an official to make fun of greatly?
Next week one harbor connect new and open, can Hong Kong shareholder long to come the liberation army not?
Hum, this problem, day of the person that save oneself is saved, if Hong Kong will be not shown tomorrow " invert greatly " , be afraid next week situation also too won't good, 3 trade day, a50 futures falls the first day 2.21% , go up the following day 0.52% , the 3rd day drops 1.78% , drop for a time 2.31% .
Is this kind of circumstance still done after all that now do not make investment?
Still be the view before, when you invest, need raises careful rate, no matter be A, harbor still perhaps be an US stock. Present circumstance is, it is at the same time those who be in the United States guide next interest rate that go up step by step, across is burgeoning country past 10 years accumulation mountainous debt, include China and Hong Kong. This can have a problem certainly, but cannot judge the crisis when to come.
Discretion treats your anticipation, raise your investment level.
