The article comes from date of small letter public " macroscopical research and asset configure Lichao " , the author is Li Chao, Sun Ou.
Content summary
Core viewpoint:
After appreciation tax rate is reduced, whether does the enterprise depreciate will affect PPI, and this depends on its are right downstream bargain ability. We spend ability of judgement industry bargain according to turnover rate of receivable Zhang money and industry concentration, if capability of company negotiate a price is stronger, the enterprise below extreme circumstance does not depreciate, if bargain ability is weaker, below extreme circumstance, applicable when the industry of 16% tax rate depreciates completely, depreciate extent is 2.59% . We set phasing to answer to each industry according to bargain ability depreciate suppose, via calculating, the noise of negative Xiang Ying that appreciation tax rate reduces pair of PPI to add fast annual center compared to the same period makes an appointment with 0.6-0.9 percent. But disturb to PPI considering environmental protection element bigger, the PPI of 1% less than calculates result of short duration not to affect the judgement of pair of annual PPI.
Value added tax leads what the enterprise after reducing does not contain duty value to adjust influence gain, the adjustment of the price that contain tax affects PPI
Usually, when tax rate of value added tax changes, the enterprise can owe tax of value added tax have shift, if tax rate is reduced, below the circumstance with the changeless price that contain tax, its profit can grow somewhat. However, be not all enterprises to be able to carry the price that contain tax changeless then enterprise oneself enjoys the benefit that reduces duty to bring completely, whether does the enterprise depreciate to basically depend on its are right downstream bargain ability. Overall look, as a result of amount of value added tax not plan enter company operating costs, income, after appreciation tax rate is reduced, company profit basically suffers his not to contain the effect that duty value adjusts, and the effect that PPI basically suffers the price that contain tax to adjust.
After appreciation tax rate is reduced, if do not contain duty sale price changeless, the sale price that contain tax will drop accordingly
After appreciation tax rate is reduced, its if the company is right downstream bargain capability is strong, below extreme circumstance, the enterprise need not reduce A of the price that contain tax, criterion plan reduce and increase what do not contain duty value to be able to be led as value added tax what enter company income, increase company profit then. If the enterprise is downstream to its bargain ability is weak, the enterprise meets what lead as value added tax adjust synchronism to reduce the price that contain tax, the condition that does not contain photograph of duty value amplitude to compare ability of strong negotiate a price will be reduced somewhat, below extreme circumstance, if the enterprise did not withhold any appreciation tax rate to reduce brought profit, let benefit give through depreciating entirely downstream, to applicable the industry of 16% tax rate, do not contain duty value A/1.16 to keep changeless, the price that contain tax is reduced for (A/1.16) × 1.13, fall for 2.59% ; To applicable the industry of 10% tax rate, of the price fall for 0.91% .
Of industry bargain ability decide: Basically serve as decision criteria according to turnover rate of receivable Zhang money
Study appreciation tax rate adjusts the influence to PPI, need the bargain capability with divisional and disparate downstream to its industry only, the price basically pays close attention to the sale price that contain tax. We use index of turnover rate of receivable Zhang money to do decide, auxiliary use industry spends index centrally (appear on the market company battalion receives CR4) reach an industry to manage a feature to be done to relevant industry adjust. Turnover rate of receivable Zhang money is lower, the number of day of have enough to meet need of receivable Zhang money that shows the company inside the industry is more, pressure of have enough to meet need is greater, criterion the bargain ability with downstream to its enterprise is weaker. Accordingly we basically measure the bargain ability of the industry according to turnover rate of receivable Zhang money, but also spend centrally according to the industry reach management feature to be made to partial industry adjust, for instance, set of course of study is public issue not to move price, manufacturing industry set is the car to depreciate completely.
Appreciation tax rate reduces pair of PPI annulus to be calculated than gaining fast influence
We stop 41 stature trades of industry the cent of 20% minutes of digit of data of Zhang money turnover rate to be 5 groups by coordinate, the industry that is in interval of highest cent digit suppose does not depreciate completely, the industry that is in interval of the 2nd 20% minutes of digit lowers the sale price that contain tax, fall for 2.59% × 20% , ordinal, be in lowest 20% minutes the industry of digit depreciates extent is 2.59% × 80% , special industry does the part to be handled alone. The fluctuant range that adjusts extent to add authority to get entire industry PPI on average to each industry value is - 1.19% , of the dot when we hint this data is depreciate the price ring that behavior brings is compared fluctuant, need to be pushed through annulus comparing compared to the same period the method gets PPI compared to the same period fluctuant extent.
Appreciation tax rate is reduced the negative effect of PPI annual centre is 0.6-0.9 about pair this year percent
After assuming appreciation tax rate will be adjusted on April 1, each industry is used 1, 3, the time of 6 months finishs total value to reduce, criterion - the PPI annulus of 1.19% is compared fall will reflect respectively in April, the PPI annulus of 4-6 month and 4-9 month is worth than forecasting in. We are ordinal in former PPI each months of annulus comparing is added fast undertake adjustment on the foundation that calculates a value, computation gets PPI is added compared to the same period fast, our calculate a result to show, below 3 kinds of case, the influence that appreciation tax rate adjusts pair of PPI centre is respectively - 0.89, - 0.79 and - 0.64 percent, considering the extreme sex of hypothesis and error, we think, appreciation tax rate is adjusted noisy extent made an appointment with the negative Xiang Ying of PPI centre pair 2019 in 0.6-0.9 between percent. But disturb to PPI considering environmental protection element bigger, the PPI of 1% less than calculates result of short duration not to affect the judgement of pair of annual PPI.
Risk clew
Demand side element exceeds anticipate go up, or environmental protection is restricted to produce hasten to father make PPI ring bigger than improving range, appreciation tax rate reduces the influence to PPI to be lost to change.
Value added tax leads what the enterprise after reducing contains duty value to adjust will affect PPI
Working report of government of the State Council put forward to wait for manufacturing industry 2019 active the tax rate of value added tax of 16% falls to 13% , wait for bldg. the industry active the tax rate of 10% falls to 9% , the tax rate that carries 6% first gear is fixed, but increase taxation to touch through adopting sex of pair of production, life to serve industry buckle wait for measure of form a complete set, ensure duty loses all industries to be decreased only do not add.
Current our country's vigorous finance policy emphasizes more " qualitative " , expend through decreasing duty to fall namely arouse industry vitality, accordingly, the main purpose that we think the country lowers tax rate of company rise in value depends on increasing company profit, raise profit margin, hurried sends the natural disposition inside economy to increase power. We are commented on in governmental working report " enterprise the people's livelihood is this, RMB asset weighs appraise " in made approximate estimation, predicting annual reduces company revenue and burden of cost of social security pay nearly 2 trillion yuan, among them two the biggest step are to lower appreciation tax rate, we predict the dimensions that reduce tax is in 5000-6000 100 million the left and right sides; 2 it is to reduce town worker capture of unit of primary endowment insurance expends scale, predict to fall fee scale may be in 4000-7000 100 million the left and right sides.
>After appreciation tax rate is reduced, the enterprise is in depreciate with the balance in gain keep, core depends on its bargain ability
Value added tax is with commodity (contain should tax service) be on the move in a kind when be on the move to the appreciation forehead of the generation in the process regards plan duty as the basis and be collected duty. Value added tax attributes indirect tax, theoretic, touch when value added tax buckle when chain is complete, the paragraph meets the value added tax of company place pay to be assumed by downstream client directly, ultimate consumer is the actual undertaker that duty loses. This is meant, when tax rate of value added tax changes, the enterprise can owe tax of value added tax have shift, if tax rate is reduced, below the circumstance with the changeless price that contain tax, its profit can grow somewhat. However, be not all enterprises to be able to carry the price that contain tax changeless then industry oneself enjoys the benefit that reduces duty to bring completely, this depends on the bargain ability of the industry, perhaps say the demand price elasticity of the product. As the fall of tax rate of value added tax, the enterprise of high demand price elasticity often more apt depreciates in order to strive for more market share. Accordingly, what we should study is appreciation tax rate after reducing, the enterprise depreciates in tone case makes benefit downstream, do not move the price in order to make the balance between oneself keep accrual. As a result of amount of value added tax not plan enter company operating costs, income, because this value added tax leads profit of the company after reducing to basically suffer an enterprise not to contain the effect that duty value adjusts, and the effect that PPI basically suffers the price that contain tax to adjust. For instance, if the enterprise of an industry and the sale contract that sign downstream do not contain duty value to be a foundation with what secure, so after be like tax rate to reduce, the enterprise reduces the price that contain tax, by of 1.16 times do not contain duty value to fall accordingly for of 1.13 times do not contain duty value, manufactured goods price appeared to reduce.
The different situation that we explain with a case appreciation tax rate reduces pair of company product values and gain effect. If the enterprise purchases raw material a batch, the payment for goods that received value added tax makes clear on special bill is 1 million yuan, value added tax is 160 thousand yuan, it is namely just in 1 million yuan of raw material that remembers a company, raw material can turn into operating costs in period end. The accountant handles as follows:
Borrow: Raw material 1 million yuan
Should hand in duty to expend -- should pay value added tax (input tax) 160 thousand yuan
Borrow: Bank deposit 1.16 million yuan
Manage together, the enterprise sells a batch of goods, the price is 2 million yuan, according to the tax rate of 16% , need pay 320 thousand yuan of value added tax, but it is only inside this 2 million yuan plan in the business income that joins a company, value added tax is in should pay value added tax next business accounting. The accountant handles as follows:
Borrow: Bank deposit 2.32 million
Borrow: Business income 2 million
Should hand in duty to expend -- should pay value added tax (output tax) 320 thousand
Value added tax is the duty outside valence, when the client is buying goods, a few purchase department often as a result of " the tax inside valence is phantom " still pay close attention to total prices, is not a money paid for something purchased or received for something sold and departure of value added tax come relativity price is compared, because need to distinguish in research of this value added tax,the price that contain tax is mixed do not contain duty value, plan those who join industry forms for reporting statistics is not to contain duty value, PPI is the concept of the price that contain tax. In afore-mentioned example, the product of 2.32 million is the price that contain tax, if appreciation tax rate is adjusted, on 2.32 million foundation, whether to adjust the price, can bring different influence to company earnings and PPI.
After hypothesis appreciation tax rate is reduced, below the circumstance with the changeless sale price containing tax of the product, criterion of the enterprise
Turnover of commodity of business income = / (1+ appreciation tax rate)
If value added tax is led from 16% instead 13% , the change of business income is as follows
Business income increases turnover of value = commodity / (1+13%)- commodity turnover / (1+16% )
= does business formerly income × ((1+16%)/(1+13%)-1)
To operating costs, adopt similar method:
Raw material of operating costs = purchases the specified amount / (1+ appreciation tax rate)
If value added tax is led from 16% instead 13% , the change of operating costs is as follows
Operating costs increases value = raw material to purchase the specified amount / (1+13%)- raw material purchases the specified amount / (1+16% )
× of = raw operating costs ((1+16%)/(1+13%)-1)
Namely, profit total increases value = business income to raise a cost - operating costs raises a cost
But afore-mentioned computation also are put in certain error, there is a part to cannot be touched to buckle by income in operating costs, so actual operating costs increases a value to need afore-mentioned computation to be less than the scale of 1 by as a result, we are afore-mentioned computation can be on certain level overmeasure operating costs, the addition that underestimated gain then is worth.
From this, if 16% tax rate are reduced to 13% , (1) if do not depreciate, so of business income plan became into amount (232/(1+13%) ) =205.3 10 thousand yuan, before business income photograph compares this 2 million yuan grew 2.65% , (2) if the enterprise depreciates 10 thousand yuan, business income became 2.31 million, so business income plan entering amount is (231/(1+13%) ) =204.42 10 thousand yuan, grow 2.21% than 2 million yuan. Depreciate make the amplitude of company profit is reduced.
This shows, short-term inside (depreciate for a long time to bring higher demand possibly, drive the growth of sales volume, income, profit, make up for short-term yield benefit) , if appreciation tax rate is reduced, the enterprise does not depreciate, can enjoy higher profit to go up 2.65% , if the enterprise depreciates, can make profit rises reduce somewhat, namely appreciation tax rate reduced brought total profit to be undertaken allocation between oneself and downstream company profit by the enterprise, in this process, depreciating process is the process that PPI changes, we care the extent that depreciates accordingly.
>After appreciation tax rate is reduced, if do not contain duty sale price changeless, the sale price that contain tax will drop accordingly
PPI is index of industrial product producer price, because our research is aimed at industrial industry and price of its manufactured goods. In industrial industry, what light industry of gas, water to use only is 10% appreciation tax rate, this second attune falls for 9% , industry of heating power of mining industry, manufacturing industry, power all applicable is 16% tax rate fall to 13% , accordingly we handle two kinds of trades respectively.
Above all, to industry of heating power of mining, manufacturing industry, power, before lowering appreciation tax rate suppose, the price containing tax of the enterprise is A, criterion its do not contain duty value to be A/(1+16%) . Below extreme circumstance, if the industry is right downstream bargain capability is particularly strong, so after appreciation tax rate is reduced, the enterprise need not reduce A of the price that contain tax, so plan reduce and increase what do not contain duty value to be able to be led as value added tax what enter company income, increase company profit then. If the company is right downstream bargain ability is weak, so the enterprise can adjust synchronism to reduce the price that contain tax as what value added tax leads, make do not contain duty value amplitude to reduce, consider extreme case likewise, if the enterprise did not withhold any appreciation tax rate to reduce brought profit, let benefit give through depreciating entirely downstream, so containing duty value A/(1+16%) keep changeless, the price that contain tax is reduced for (A/(1+16%) ) × (1+13% ) , compare the A before tax rate is reduced, fall for 1- (1+13% ) / (1+16%)=2.59% .
Manage together, to lighting industry of gas, water, weak, depreciating extreme circumstance leaves bargain capacity, of the price fall for 1- (1+9% ) / (1+10%)=0.91% .
Of industry bargain ability decide: Basically serve as decision criteria according to turnover rate of receivable Zhang money
Actually, the enterprise is opposite according to its on, downstream bargain ability can divide by force infirmly for 4 kinds of case: Case 1, strong to upriver bargain ability, strong to downstream bargain ability; Case 2, strong to upriver bargain ability, weak to downstream bargain ability; Case 3, weak to upriver bargain ability, strong to downstream bargain ability; Case 4, weak to upriver bargain ability, weak to downstream bargain ability.
If we study the bargain ability effect to company profit, need to judge cost end and the influence that income carries integratedly, the price basically pays close attention to the purchase price that does not contain tax and sale price. If the industry is opposite capability of bargain of its upper reaches is stronger, its do not contain duty purchase price to be able to keep changeless; If the industry is opposite ability of bargain of its upper reaches is weaker, its do not contain duty purchase price to often be faced with rise. Illustrate, before be like tax rate to reduce, do not contain duty purchase price to be X, contain duty purchase price to be 1.16X right now, if industry bargain capability is stronger, processional course of study will give on its yield benefit, after tax rate is reduced, adjust the purchase price that contain tax accordingly for 1.13X, namely guarantee against contains duty purchase price changeless; Posture of Dan Rehang industry compares the parade on its ability of property negotiate a price is weaker, go up the purchase price containing tax that parades course of study often maintains 1.16X is changeless, do not contain duty purchase price to turn into right now 1.16X/1.13=1.027X, namely trade cost rises. Manage together, if the industry leaves capacity of processional property negotiate a price to its stronger, do not contain duty sale price to be able to lift, if bargain ability is weaker, do not contain duty sale price changeless. Accordingly, we affect what cost, income gets collect, the company profit that got 4 kinds of case fall changes (see next tables) .
If we study appreciation tax rate adjusts the influence to PPI, need the bargain capability with divisional and disparate downstream to its industry only, the price basically pays close attention to the sale price that contain tax. Before hypothesis tax rate is reduced, of the enterprise do not contain duty sale price to be Y, the sale price that contain tax is 1.16Y, after tax rate is reduced, if the industry is downstream to its bargain capability is stronger, its contain tenability of duty sale price changeless, need not be reduced along with tax rate and reduce the price; But if bargain ability is weaker, the enterprise inside the industry often can reduce the sale price that contain tax, highest likelihood attune falls for 1.13Y, be about to the earnings that tax rate reduces makes benefit downstream entirely.
How to measure the bargain ability of the industry? We basically use index of turnover rate of receivable Zhang money to do decide, auxiliary use industry spends index centrally (company battalion appears on the market to receive CR4 inside the industry) reach an industry to manage a feature to be done to relevant industry adjust.
Turnover rate of receivable Zhang money is lower, the number of day of have enough to meet need of receivable Zhang money that shows the company inside the industry is more, pressure of have enough to meet need is greater, criterion the bargain capacity that the enterprise leaves processional job to its is weaker. In classification of occupation of economy of statistical bureau countryman, 41 are divided below industry kinds big child industry (mining industry 7, manufacturing industry 31, the production that power heating power lights air-water supplies industry 3) , because data of turnover rate of receivable Zhang money is short of,break, we adopt formula: Did business 2018 income / ((money of receivable 2017 Zhang + money of receivable 2018 Zhang) / 2) make approximate calculation, the trade data computation that use statistic bureau releases got each industry data of turnover rate of receivable Zhang money, do preliminary sort, be opposite on behalf of the industry downstream bargain ability by arrive by force weak.
We are calculated each industry appears on the market company advocate business Wu income spends CR4 centrally, combine industry feature to serve as auxiliary test and verify, make to the bargain ability judgement of partial industry adjust. For instance, black metal smelt and pressure delay treatment industry CR4 to be about 41% (2018 the 3rd quarter advocate battalion income) , the industry is spent centrally inferior, we think ability of border negotiate a price is actually weaker; Mining industry regards upper reaches as the industry, bargain ability is general stronger, we pick black metal mine pick course of study and other mining industry all set is do not move price; Line of business of metalloid mineral products (cement) area is spent centrally taller, and cooperate with considering the enterprise inside area, its are stronger to ability of downstream agency or engineering company negotiate a price, adjust to do not move price; Common cause industry is administrative price commonly, we also all set is do not move price; Nonferrous metal smelt and pressure delay treatment industry set to be do not move price, the reason depends on coloured breed basically is global price, domestic policy impact is minor, the after deducting tax price of the adjusts pair of main streams nonferrous metal breed of appreciation tax rate won't produce distinct effect; Food manufacturing industry and the client that food processes trade are terminal consumer, individual consumer and manufacturing company posture compare the position that is in relatively weak force, capability of company negotiate a price is stronger whole, set is do not move price; Finally, the status of automobile manufacturing industry is relatively special, automobile industry is emulative industry, truckload the factory often chooses to fall according to the country the extent of duty reduces directive price directly (proposal retail price) , adjust by factory price *1.16 for factory price *1.13. According to Chinese duty Wu the newspaper reported on March 26, partial brand car has moved retail prices through falling, take the lead in decreasing duty to make response to this, late on March 15, beijing plum Sai Desi - run quickly sale service limited company announces through official small gain namely, reduce Meisaidesi ahead of schedule - run quickly reach Smart to be in entirely in chinese mainland the firm proposal retail price of carry out model. BMW (China) the car trade limited company and limited company of car of Hua Chenbao horse are back-to-back also car product manufacturer that is in China to sell at announcing to reduce on March 16 suggests retail price. With day, the brand such as nimble leopard, Lu Hu, Woerwo and Lincoln also announces to reduce in China sale car price.
Appreciation tax rate reduces pair of PPI to add fast influence to calculate compared to the same period
>The negative effect that appreciation tax rate will reduce pair of PPI annual centre this year in April is 0.6-0.9 about percent
We stop 41 stature trades of industry the cent of 20% minutes of digit of data of Zhang money turnover rate to be 5 groups by coordinate, make following hypothesis: The industry that is in interval of highest cent digit suppose does not depreciate completely, the industry that is in interval of the 2nd 20% minutes of digit lowers the sale price that contain tax, fall for 2.59% × 20% , ordinal, be in lowest 20% minutes the industry of digit depreciates 2.59% × 80% . But a few when we list in the 2nd part special industries do alone processing, for instance set automobile manufacturing industry depreciates extent is 2.59% , although steely industry is in interval of before 20% minutes of digit, but because its are actual bargain ability is weaker, set its depreciate 60% .
According to the basis principle of business accounting of PPI of national statistic bureau, the nucleus of PPI is index of price of will different product to add authority to get, weight depends on this product sale perhaps sells production value to hold entire industry proportion, we accordingly, the sale that chooses different profession regards computation as the foundation of weight, gain each industry weight, fluctuant to afore-mentioned prices value undertakes the fluctuant extent of PPI of average attainable entire industry is increasing advantageous position - 1.19% , what need emphasizes here is, - 1.19% of the dot when be depreciate the price ring that behavior brings is compared fluctuant, need to be pushed through annulus comparing compared to the same period the method gets PPI compared to the same period fluctuant extent. Here, we do the following 3 kinds of hypothesis calculate respectively:
1) after assuming appreciation tax rate will be adjusted on April 1, each industry finished total value to reduce with the time of a month, criterion PPI annulus will be compared in April add fast will compare us before this calculate a value 0.2% reduce to 0.2%-1.19%=-0.99% , annulus comparing will increase our basis in April fast derivation of the data after adjusting goes out each months of PPI was added compared to the same period 2019 fast reach annual center, the negative effect that as a result indication centre gets is 0.89 percent about;
2) after assuming appreciation tax rate will be adjusted on April 1, of each industry value reduce be advance gradually, depreciate on average inside 3 months, criterion of 1.19% fall an average branch deserve to be in we are opposite before this 4, 5, the annulus June is compared add fast calculate a value over, the negative effect that right now centre gets is 0.79 percent;
3) after assuming appreciation tax rate will be adjusted on April 1, each industry depreciates on average inside 6 months, criterion of 1.19% fall allocate on average in us the to 4-9 month annulus before this is compared add fast calculate a value over, the negative effect that right now centre gets is 0.64 percent.
Considering the extreme sex of hypothesis and error, we think, if consider appreciation tax rate to reduce this one single factor only, appreciation tax rate is adjusted noisy extent made an appointment with the negative Xiang Ying of PPI centre pair 2019 in 0.6-0.9 between percent. But disturb to PPI considering environmental protection element bigger, the PPI of 1% less than calculates result of short duration not to affect the judgement of pair of annual PPI.
>Appreciation tax rate was reduced last year the negative effect of PPI centre was 0.2-0.3 about pair 2018 percent
If use afore-mentioned methods at reducing value added tax to lead the backdate of a percent in May 2018, after lowering appreciation tax rate, single industry product contains the amplitude modulation below duty value highest for 1- (1+16% ) / (1+17% ) =0.85% , the PPI annulus that adds authority to get on average then is compared fall for 0.39% , below 3 kinds of hypothesis that reduce the price in the time that uses 6 3 a month, months, months respectively, gotten PPI year the negative effect that centre gets is respectively 0.29, 0.26 with 0.21 percent, considering the extreme sex of hypothesis and error, we think, appreciation tax rate is adjusted the influence of PPI centre was in about pair 2018 - 0.2 to - between 0.3 percent.
Risk clew
1, demand side element exceeds anticipate go up to make PPI ring bigger than improving range all right, appreciation tax rate reduces the influence to PPI to be lost to change;
2, environmental protection is restricted to produce hasten to father push litre of PPI.
