Outside the watch the influence of financing atrophy falls, company be in harmony was added in May fast glide to 10.3% , was January 2006 the lowermost level since. According to the endowment canal new rule that issued in April, transfer period (by 2020 before) in the asset of prize of the blame that put an amount that expires stage by stage, can replace by financing of credit, bond; Transfer period later, still undue is not prize asset, need carries on by the capital inside the watch or other finance orgnaization. Accordingly, the capital is not mark that place of endowment canal product invests, 2020 there is adjustment pressure before the bottom. Reduce the effect that produces possibly to economy to ease blame mark, development replaces extremely urgent of sexual financing channel.
Suffer the effect that dimensions of company be in harmony expects not as good as, add an enterprise newly in May to deposit money under historical the corresponding period, drive M1 to increase fast fall after a rise compared to the same period to 6.0% .
M1, m2, increase RMB loan newly, social financing dimensions
Add a RMB newly in May to borrow money 1.15 trillion, be worth before 1.18 trillion, the market and our anticipation is 1.2 trillion. Increase social financing scope newly 760.8 billion, be worth before 1.56 trillion, the market anticipates 1.3 trillion, our calculate a value for 1.35 trillion. M1 compared to the same period 6.0% , be worth before 7.2% , the market anticipates 7.3% , our calculate a value for 7.4% . M2 compared to the same period 8.3% , be worth before 8.3% , the market and our anticipation is 8.5% .
1, endowment canal adjusts influence peep
Add social financing dimensions newly in May to be 760.8 billion yuan only, relatively April 1.56 trillion drop close half, and of social financing remaining sum add fast also glide further to 10.3% , was January 2006 the lowermost level since.
Cause company be in harmony to add fast the atrophy that gliding main reason is the financing outside the watch. Included fiducial loan in May, entrust loan and not discount bank draft inside the financing outside the watch adds up to decrease 421.5 billion. Among them, fiducial in May loan puts an amount add compared to the same period fast drop to 16.0% , relatively low in April 4.2 percent; Entrust what loan puts an amount to be added compared to the same period fast for - 3.4% , fall relatively expanded in April be close to a percent, already successive 3 months enjoy growth; Not discount bank draft puts an amount add compared to the same period fast for 0.9% , relatively low in April nearly 1.1 percent.
And the adjustment of the financing outside the watch just just begins. On April 27, 2018, " the directive opinion that runs business about asset of normative finance orgnaization " the time that invests the capital that be not mark to endowment canal product matchs have a demand, transfer period (by 2020 before) in the asset of prize of the blame that put an amount that expires stage by stage, can replace by financing of credit, bond; Transfer period later, still undue is not prize asset, need carries on by the capital inside the watch or other finance orgnaization. Accordingly, the capital is not mark that place of endowment canal product invests, 2020 there is adjustment pressure before the bottom.
The data that fiducial trade association releases shows, second half of the year will be greeted 2018 fiducial due small height, what came to will expire in December in June is onefold as fiducial as gather month all dimensions is 492.3 billion yuan. End by 2017, capital is fiducial in 38.2% cast to loan. What if came in June 2018 suppose,will expire in December is fiducial in of loan occupy than also be 38.2% , so the 6 fiducial loan that come to will expire in December month all dimensions is adjacent 188.3 billion. Accordingly, second half of the year is not bid financing to will still face contractive pressure.
In addition, suffer the concussion of incident of risk of debt city credit, the company with partial inferior grade kind credit debt cancels to issue, make enterprise bond financing decreased in May 43.4 billion.
Social financing remaining sum is added fast it is nominal GDP is added fast main banner index, accordingly, company be in harmony puts a quantity to add fast drop to be in possibly second half of the year caused nominal GDP to add fast be issued to lower levels 2018. End to was entrusted in May 2018 loan, fiducial loan and not discount bank draft puts a quantity to be occupied mediumly in company be in harmony than for 14.5% , reduce the effect that produces possibly to economy to ease blame mark, development replaces sexual financing channel (the standardization product alignment that pays the bill the bill of place to bring into endowment canal product to be able to invest for example) extremely urgent.
2, growth of the credit inside the watch is smooth
Although be not bid financing to add fast put delay significantly, but the credit inside the watch is added fast maintained relatively smooth. Add a RMB newly in May 2018 to borrow money 1.15 trillion, relatively go up the moon is small fall after a rise 30 billion. Loan remaining sum was added in May fast for 12.6% , relatively go up the moon is small fall after a rise 0.1 percent.
From the point of company department, add an enterprise newly in May to borrow money 525.5 billion, relatively get on the moon is small to drop 47.1 billion. Consider debt of local government displacement issued 338.1 billion yuan in May, relatively on of the month 301.8 billion rise 36.3 billion, the annulus that the enterprise borrowed money in May is compared fall the likelihood is only 10.8 billion the left and right sides, reflection gives company credit financing overall and smooth. In addition, the dimensions of financing of the bill in adding a RMB newly in May to borrow money is achieved 144.7 billion, was September 2016 the top level since, mirror instead from flank the line of credit inside the watch is relatively at present full.
From the point of dweller branch, the long term loan in gaining a resident newly in May 392.3 billion, relatively the corresponding period decreased last year 40.3 billion, mirrorred estate sale to add fast the influence that puts delay. But increase dweller short term loan newly for 222 billion, absolute level is higher still.
3, company be in harmony puts bank savings of company of delay be a burden on
M2 was compared to the same period in May 8.3% , with on the month keeps balance, anticipate under the market. Company bank savings grows under historical the corresponding period it is M2 is added fast the main reason that anticipates not as good as. Add an enterprise newly in May to deposit money to be only 13.9 billion, was 2009 the corresponding period since is the most low-level. Company bank savings is added fast go low to be concerned with on the low side of dimensions of company be in harmony accidentally. Historical data shows, company bank savings is fluctuant with social financing dimensions fluctuant with closely related.
Company deposit growth is lack of power make unit current deposit is added fast drop, drive M1 was added compared to the same period in May fast drop to the low of 6.0% , relatively in April considerably fall after a rise 1.2 percent. Unit current deposit is added fast it is the main index that depict company production manages brisk rate, have certain banner sex compared to the same period to PPI. M1 is added compared to the same period fast remarkable fall after a rise is meant, although PPI of the 2nd quarter is in compared to the same period,will appear below the influence of small cardinal number pick up, but second half of the year is likely once more be issued to lower levels.
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