Since reforming and opening, develop as the high speed of national economy, the rise that makes all trades and professions rapid. The development of real-estate industry if velocity of light is general, rapid estate also made the pillar industry of whole countryman economy. Although estate company investment is omnibus very strong economy activity, also can bring huge profit to the enterprise, but the risk that at the same time its investment process also has height.
Below the situation that in Chinese estate wave cunning cloud cheats, almost the heart of everybody kink is worn, much investment hold together is in the person of estate, more OK the billows of infer heart. Because our country is in the condition of economy of not complete market, we besides should study the market moves the rule besides, even the setting that dug country policy publishs to intervene with the government and cause.
(one old early schoolmates come to the classroom in succession)
In August 25-26 day, sponsor by tall Jing Yatai " president of EMBA of surveyor's pole estate is senior grind long class " 6 -- " real estate joins system of financing ＆ sale " hold in Beijing. This second course invites be engaged in estate for a long time sending financing and work of estate development research, have rich industry experience, and the teacher of the original understanding to the industry. We do not have method to give out very accurate forecast, but carry deduction, can utmost ground finds risk place, take shelter from the wind for student compasses danger, get accrual to create a condition.
(bright morning reads the study that receives in sound)
Through the development that comes for years, company of our country estate is in transition period, march toward a many domain stage by stage, the enterprise of normalization. The growth pattern of estate company also is being changed gradually, before is the give special treatment that relies on governmental support and policy, and basically rely on enterprise itself and market to adjust now.
Offer the flying growth of the price as estate, and a series of policy that the country issues with respect to its problem, the investment that is estate company is more feral. Because the wave motion of prices is bigger, the competitive strength between the cost of material that building place wants and estate company increases gradually, bring about estate company to also increase increasingly in the change of the risk in investing a process. Accordingly for better answer investment risk, need offers reasonable look measure of official seal model, ability makes estate company health develops.
(outstanding instructor, international registers group of task of research of estate of expert of library of doctor of Mr. Wu economics, surveyor's pole wisdom, Beijing University expert of program of investment division, senior industry, tell library of wisdom of a member of the same clan salary of chief economist, day (Beijing) limited company of investment fund management, executive trustee holds president, Chinese concurrently
Estate invests macroscopical risk to analyse
(one) periodic risk
Estate invests the first periodic risk influence. For example city of 10 thousand centers, modern city, 10 thousand divisions because of catch up with inning and rise abruptly, japan, Hong Kong, United States second borrow the crisis to waited to appear periodic jump the risk problem of the building.
Industry of our country real-estate is industry of a high risk, because its investment and accrual cycle are long,be. Accordingly, undertake estate invests to be able to have a risk blindly. Our country real estate also is put in periodic wave motion, 3 index can divide separate out estate the rule of periodic wave motion: The first it is estate sale growth; The 2nd it is sale area growth, the market sold how many house; The 3rd it is investment growth, because the market is pulled,move namely, industrial investment growth is tall low still.
Look from concerned data account, begin from 1984, estate had experienced 3 hair in our country exhibition period mixes two low period. Arrive from 1984 1988, this is a development period, about lustrum; Arrived 1989 1990 is low period; Arrive from 1991 1995 is the 2nd development period; Came 1996 1997 is low period; From 1998 up to now our country real estate entered a new hair extend a time limit.
(2) policy sex risk
1, economic system reforms a risk. The risk that economic system reforms is to point to the influence of a kind of economic system to whole real estate, the loss with may make real estate gets certain. The integral structure that economic system is deciding the way that economy of this country future runs and national economy commonly. If the country undertakes reform to economic system, this runs a mechanism to also want to follow change with respect to the industrial structure that shows this country and economy.
2, land use system reforms a risk. Land uses a system to reform the cost that also can affect real estate. For example, the regulation of the accident of use fixed number of year of land, develop business collect fees and compensation can make cost raises. Another reason, authorities person the meeting change according to land, with respect to its the value of land makes corresponding strategy also can bring a risk to estate company. Additional, authorities person the stability that the method that should use macroscopical adjusting control will come command house price, prevent exorbitant and deviate market value. So, the change of these policy can bring a risk to estate company.
(3) marketability risk
The risk of supply and demand of estate market is estate company and purchaser between trade the risk of formation market supply and demand. The market and supply and demand are not changeless, so the supply that go up and demand meet estate market to change and change as economic development.
As a result of unbalance of supply and demand, can give estate enterprise and the person that buy a house brings bigger risk. So, estate company always should pay close attention to the tendency that economy grows, had done true market to analyse the pattern that grasps market supply and demand, understand the ability of purchaser. Undertake be forecastinged reasonably, avoid thereby or reduce the risk that the market brings.
Mode of real-estate project financing
Since last year, finance superintends strength to be strengthened stage by stage, become Chongzhongzhi to weigh to prevent to produce systematization banking venture, live build ministry, Central Bank, silver-colored inspect to be able to wait for much ministries and commissions to all express to want action of the normative financing that buy a house, bank, fiducial wait for homogeneous phase afterwards to publish finance to superintend policy, right dimensions of financing of room look forward to, channel, means make farther standard, accuse to the aptitude examine and verify of the enterprise and capital canal more standard and strict.
According to national statistic bureau newest data shows, before this year 4 months, room look forward to reachs the designated position capital is added fast low to 2.1% , keep low a condition, among them, domestic loan is added fast mortgage loan to add fast in pairs to appear with the individual negative growth. Connect the Central Bank fell on April 18 accurate, release capital of 400 billion yuan of increment to fail to alleviate the capital insecurity state of real-estate industry. 1-4 month credit is added fast glide, the delegate goes with finance lever is a target, the credit that is aimed at estate is directional and constrictive still continueing, the capital gate that flows to estate closes gradually small. In the meantime, cost inherent to the asset also is in ceaseless promotion.
Cent of cardinal principle of mode of real-estate project financing is 5 parts: 1. Without cost financing mode, 2. Equity collaboration mode, 3. Own reserves adds bond financing, 4. Bright solid debt, 5. Other financing mode...
After the class, by Beijing University estate research task group carries out teacher of group leader discipline (left 3) issue letter of class commission order for 6 outstanding student.
Estate company invests risk analysis
(one) attention government policy is oriented, master first-rate to invest period
1, the policy that close attention country changes about estate economic system and direction, the enterprise establishs policy analysis group to make reasonable assessment, pay close attention to the development of national industry structure, according to the development calculated of industrial structure dispersive sex invests.
2, should undertake be assessmented reasonably to its before gaining land access with the budget, see its whether accord with development condition, had done related to the government the branch is communicated with talk things over, and obtain support and help. The development of land and use should have done reasonable allocation, the increase of use resource implementation that such enterprises can circulate is the biggest the obstacle that change and reduces risk and other side.
(2) strengthen the market monitor, reasonable and evasive risk
1, the tendercy that estate company wants market of tight attention house property, according to nearly one year or building of a few years clinchs a deal the development project that measures the cycle below sound plan, and had been done prevent blind development relevantly to create a building superfluous cause capital occupy pressure.
2, the enterprise is during inflation, can choose what a few buildings have low interest rate appropriately to sell, can alleviate of cost reclaim and the flow of capital, the government when inflation can do corresponding countermeasure to solve, can make according to governmental countermeasure reasonable evasive. In interest rate this respect, estate company can rise to anticipate and use form of contract of fixed interest rate, avoid this risk.
(3) attention society tendercy, had done reasonable be on guard
1, the principle that sets with the risk, the enterprise should pay close attention to the policy of governmental town planning closely, invest a plan according to planning to make next, constitute investment in anticipate to fall the risk to lowest below yield, reasonable perhaps dispersive risk, make yield gets the biggest change. For example, estate company can build office building in a few places, build in another places uptown etc. The investment risk measurement of the estate of different type is different, earnings is not same also. Can receive relatively average income so.
2, the resident that gives this area undertakes privilege buys room policy, had done the compensation with talk things over and give a resident fair with the dweller. Improve the environment of this area, introduce commerce to garrison a village to facilitate this area resident lives, perfect the environmental establishment all round this area.
3, estate company invests cannot blind invests and oversight a sector of an area, a sector of an area is having main effect to house property enterprise, the dweller chooses a room to be able to manage week exclosure now advantage and safety serve as fundamental condition, accordingly, estate company ought to talk things over with local government when the choice is built and the autograph signs a contract, strengthen the case of public security safety of this ground. And house property enterprise also should have outstanding property run the public security system with safety.
Landed sale holds all in all position likewise below new era setting, ability of tool of control new idea, new concept, new pattern, new class, Xin Zhisheng is in spring tide of this bureau real estate stand erect does not fall.
Estate operation mode of future, it is simple and crude no longer " buy the ground, top room, sell a house " past type, however the combination of a variety of more careful, mode, for instance hold is managed, the construction of custom-built product, community, profit that develops business is sale gain no longer, however profit of later period operation.
Former teacher of leaf of chief inspector of sale of gold of 10 thousand divisions presents as leading role, industry is senior partner of introduced from the northern and western nationalities or from abroad teacher of expert of sale actual combat is tuitional, the exercise mode of system of operation of community of the sale idea that brings brand-new development mode, foremost edge for the spot, neighborhood, creativity, revolutionary sale shift and overturn case of outstanding achievement redound, get spot student praises consistently.
(group photo of this second course student)
Summary
Estate is one involves industry and domain limits to compare large trade, in the process that investing so, the risk that every phase place appears makes differ, the enterprise also should consider the risk management in reality in the process of investment, want to make overall plans in the round already, want to notice the detail of every link again, do not break away from total control, make every first-order paragraph of each segment is active carry out.
Meanwhile, the enterprise of each investment or individual, mix from interior external company culture and the actor inferior position that each respects such as management activity analyse consideration enterprise itself in the round objectively, can build reasonable and effective risk management mechanism so, make the risk is reduced, benefit rises.
