If Telangpu lost trade battle, be in office those who bring about him the foundation is damaged badly. But can bringing about Telangpu to be returned nonofficeholdingly is " the door that connect Russia " , the municipal incident such as impeach of the Democratic Party.
But it is not important to Telangpu that this can not say trade war, he has regarded success or failure be him " political life " the main factor that can continue.
Trade war is main adversary is ChinaSince be in office, telangpu instigates global trade war, threaten apply pressure, add draft ask a price of custom duty, all over the sky, go back on one's word. But current condition is, the beautiful Han FTA that finish upgrades, beautiful Mojiada becomes negotiation of commerce of open of USMCA, beautiful day, beautiful Ou Dacheng " 30 " principle consensus, only China dare cry with the United States board, fight forcedly, strike back, telangpu face is serious be thwarted. Current, main rival locks up American general commerce to be China surely, with associate of other and main commerce main controversial issue is solved basically. Can say or state with certainty, with the success or failure of Chinese trade war, be in office those who decide Telangpu foundation.
The author thinks, if China obtains pair of American trade war short-term in mixing long-term victory, can produce following effects to Telangpu:
The first, protect adverse risk to domestic interest group. If China strikes back to American specific domain,let the United States " cry ache " , telangpu should strike back to China adverse, the dissatisfaction of group of meeting aggravate interest. In addition, in agricultural domain, china is the dimensions that 20 billion dollar controls to American soja demand, the United States is found very hard replace the market, the measure that Telangpu must adopt pair of agriculture allowance alleviates the crisis, but also can send other benefit group, government office to be able to be opposite its " say turkey to one and bazzard to another " censure.
The 2nd, cannot divert domestic attention effectively. OK and affirmative ground says, if republic party lost metaphase election that, telangpu political life is in an emergency, do not eliminate by the likelihood of impeach. So, telangpu values this to be chosen very. Current, telangpu is right China approximately mad trade war, meaning establishing classics trade " the enemy " , move home " the door that connect Russia " , " annoy the door " wait for attention focus. If can make China short-term compromise, return what can obtain economic diplomacy to add cent, help force metaphase vote. And once injudicious, china is puissant strike back, telangpu will not achieve afore-mentioned goals effectively.
The 3rd, aggravate home more put difference. Dekesasi city, Washington city, new York city, Illinois all is the big city with close connection of pair of China classics trade, the interest group bureau such as shopkeeper, transnational corporation all is the state-owned deep industry catenary in mixing interest remote of collaboration closes square. If go down continuously, aggravate they are opposite Telangpu the dissatisfaction of policy, because self interest sufferred severe loss. The life cost of ordinary people also is in grow in quantity. Difference grow in quantity, the support that brings about pair of Telangpu necessarily decreases. If trade war was defeated, sequential meeting is more serious.
The 4th, spread economic risk or influence people are right Telangpu governmental confidence. What Telangpu was worth two years to show off in the past is economy performance is good, capital market innovates repeatedly tall. But market risk, pessimism has begun to accumulate. Once Sino-US attrition aggravate, war of beautiful honest trade fails, or become American stock market to steep fall, turn around be down " grey rhinoceros " incident. Economy and capital market prosperity are special absolutely bright pood does not value, trade war fails to Telangpu governmental politics, economy is what bear hard is heavy.
The 5th, international dominant authority is weakened with each passing day. In addition, if American trade war fails, mean Telangpu " the United States is preferential " , the view that reforms the multilateral trade regulation such as WTO is not had if really and eventually. So American situation declines to be able to be shown. China can have larger space in international arena. Authority of dominant of American classics trade fails, will contuse deeply the proper pride of domestic elite, or hold a group in the arms to object Telangpu.
What the author emphasizes is, the influence above is to build on very hopeful predicting foundation. But in reality, engage in a battle of Sino-US classics trade or beauty are strong I am weak, but China can have been fought with the United States, be locked in a stalemate a paragraph. So, should say commerce conquer benefit still is vogue early, now is the strategic be locked in a stalemate after false or true of explore of fight hand-in-hand, each other only primary level. Classics trade war returns a likelihood to spread to aspect of security of politics of fringe of other sphere, ground, area, real test or ability just begin, must have made long-term preparation.
Everybody looks be answered above me, strengthen confidence, it is good to look forward to future. Insufficient place, ask much make a comment or criticism.
