The opportunity that says C919 of homebred big airlines now came, too early still.
From the index such as range, amount carrying a passenger, what homebred C919 big airlines aims at is Boeing 737 MAX such in short distance plane, those who grab is this share market. But homebred big airlines is not met Boeing of too much benefit from benefit from this accident. The reason has 3:
It is, on time insufficient. 2017 and 2018, add up to of homebred big airlines completes trial flight 6 times, still will complete 6 C919 trial flight this year. And till 2021, the first C919 just is met consign.
Next graphs are C919 first the picture of test-fly
Boeing is extremely serious accident this, but estimation, effect of this one incident can last possibly only time of a few months, because this is issue of a software,perhaps say to handle an issue, be not respect of design of Boeing 737 MAX, hardware to have fatal flaw. And, boeing respect affirms, although the flight of 737 MAX and consign pause, but produce and did not stop. Namely Boeing company oneself is more hopeful still to solving a problem.
2 be, homebred big airlines returns those who need the market to examine. No matter be Boeing or empty guest, had had the disastrous lesson of aviation accident, but of safe experience of a few years accumulating do not come in vain, also not be from the back a manufacturer is short-term can make up for. Homebred big airlines still stays in experimental phase, the experiment is not equal to commerce to move. The face situation of the experiment is to compare onefold, simple, but after commerce moves, faced situation may want complex N times, whether the test that lays via canning bear different situation, return now not dare absurd makes conclusions.
Remain to examine besides security itself, big airlines considers economy even. For instance oily bad news, maintain for instance, maintain, if these respects cannot catch up with Boeing empty perhaps guest, that whats did not talk.
Up to September 2017, gross of client of C919 air bus achieves 27, accumulative total order 730. But those who need an attention is, these clients are the state-owned company of ourselves almost, saying is friendship order has not been been completely. Want those who obtain world-class to approbate truly degree, still very remote region wants.
3 be, whether can industrial engineering capability catch up with. Say Gu Yueting is PPT builds a car, but his FF91 really very assist. Nevertheless, the commodity of industrialized production, want the problem that produces considering the quantity. FF91 the cost of the ten million on need of a car, need pure handiwork to make. Big aircraft spare parts amounts to 10 thousand about a hundred, complex degree is a car on 1000 very 10 thousand times more consummate (a car has have 10 thousand component about, but component grow in quantity, complex degree is it is double those who increase) . It is with Boeing exemple, its supply catenary to pervade almost the whole world (following graphic representation) , such advantage depends on: 1, fall cost lowest; 2, will produce can expand the biggest; 3, will supply catenary risk to fall lowest (too it is not good to depend on certain supplier too) .
In addition, the situation that homebred big airlines still faces core component to rely on abroad (following graphic representation) . For instance aircraft engine is the United States is general and electric, machine annulus is Huoniweier, communication navigation system is American company Collins. Such risk depends on, be afraid of encounter " resurgence incident " " China for incident " circumstance, once component is restricted, the plane did not have legal system to build.
In addition, big airlines is made return drag in to learn to electron, material (chemical) , the across of the much discipline such as aerodynamics, machinery, need a lot of scientists, engineer to do the research of fundamental sex. If the basic research of this respect did not get a breakthrough, do you think we can make an euqally fiercer than empty guest, Boeing aircraft? But think of background science, money the pit of the stomach has bit of faint pain.
Say 3 afore-mentioned reason, actually end arrives a bit: Homebred big flying function is denied powerful, still need to rely on get victory of the quality of own product, function, economy, and cannot count on rely on the other side to err. Big airlines is manufacturing industry most that bright phearl of bright, china must be striven for, but this kind of matter is not gotten urgently, must rely on long-term public praise to accumulate, slow and steady more important -- after all the security of aviation industry, just be the first.
Pay close attention to Kong Fang finance and economics, let your economy principle that understands backside of incident of heat finance and economics for a short while.
