Be in at least this year in the winter, natural gas became keyword of a news.
Arrive from Heibei China north, to northwest, arrive China in, hua Na even Yun Gui, from lack spirit, be restricted to be enraged comprehensive " gas barren " , swept across most about the problem of natural gas breach therein country, "Breach ten times enraged barren 2009 " , " today breach of natural gas of wintry whole nation or amount to 11.3 billion stere " , and according to home of company of a few main energy calculate, this kind " protect year after year for, annual insecurity " current situation future is short-term inside still cannot change, what revise gas project as a result of follow-up coal even is farther spread out, still have the tendency of aggravate.
In the winter of this all-time chill, somebody remembered an old issue: The natural gas large sheet that signs before a few years with Russia, where to go to now?
Also be in just about this in December, before Russia media also is opposite this 3 years exceeded big contract to bet all-time enthusiasm, domestic TV station is the country to be in of construction in presently " Siberia force " plumbing made site visit special program, much home media also made follow-up is interviewed and report. Just represent joint-stock company of industry of Russia natural gas according to contract Russia (the following abbreviation " Russia is angry " ) view, to this year before the end of the year " Siberia force " (Chinese home calls natural gas normally east line) build conduit to will achieve 1300 kilometers, be equivalent to the half of length of the conduit inside plan of the first phase, project plan still compares a plan slightly fast.
Natural gas east origin of line construction site: Russia is angry
Russian gas expresses, the plan before pressing item can be in certainly implementation will adjust contract provision time in December 2019 China air feed, say well and truly, will be on December 20, 2019, and decide a plan formerly according to both sides, natural gas east the time that the line achieves full transport power was 2025, at the appointed time year be defeated by tolerance to will achieve 38 billion stere, the 10%-12% that holds market of Chinese natural gas.
Two years when disappearAlthough be in the description of Russia gas spokesman, line project goes well east movement is favorable, even hopeful shifts to an earlier date finishing, but the press at the beginning of if contrast,the contract a few years ago is signed, meeting discovery is in 2014-2015 year, no matter in still just be Russia square, to natural gas east the time of predicting air feed of the line was used " enlightened 2018 " view.
In September 2014, 4 months after deciding a large amount of this one contracts are stricken in two countries dynast, russian gas is located in Noah the Xie Lin of much · of Wei Ke of subsidiary vice president of Boer Si Ke expresses to TASS, because Russia enrages interior to plan to adjust, right China air feed date already from what decide formerly 2018 remit to 2020. This kind of view is pointed to subsequently disloyal, him Xie Lin is fired in 3 days later. Russia enrages what do not approbate Xie Lin to fire guess by the media that concern with his this preface, no less, in those days this incident also may not and at present east what does line current situation have to concern, but OK and affirmatory is, the date of announces in message of formal medium of communication entirely predicting air feed 3 years ago begins 2018.
Very difficult affirmatory change is first which link of result project, but public information shows, russian gas reduced year construction goal 2016 50% , from the laid that decides formerly 800 kilometers conduit is decreased for 400 kilometers, and 2015 annual, conduit laid plan has 115 kilometers only. Heretofore, partial Russia media still is in continue to use " air feed will begin 2018 " view, say project amount is reduced won't affect air feed date. But arrive at the beginning of 2017, from Russia gas spokesman begins, right China air feed date became " by 2019 before " , in May 2017, when the contract signs 3 years, russian gas and in oil decided formally in follow-up negotiation " on December 20, 2019 " this one due date, what meantime overall length makes an appointment with 3000 kilometers is medium Russian natural gas east line project in all laid 700 kilometers are superabundant.
Natural gas east line line attempt
A variety of elements affected the project plan that Russia enrages jointly, among them most deadly nothing is more... than 2014 of price of oil gas of international of second half of the year acuteness drop. In May 2014 east during line contract is signed, international oil price still is in 100 dollars / the history of the bucket is exalted, but begin from Summer 2014, drop again and again the international oil price that cuts each psychology to anticipate obtains the usable fund that did Russian air not only, and heavy also retype attacked Russia home to be opposite east the investment of line project is enthusiastic. 2015, price of international natural gas already was not worth the half of the market price when the contract is signed, the extent of market prise shrink that Russia enrages was achieved 86% sensational, 2015 second half of the year, if,even the comment thinks east the line continues, may collapse Russian gas directly.
And look the market of Chinese natural gas that have a boundless future, also did not think at first to Russia energy company in that way " satisfy one's thirst " . On one hand, although abandon coal to change gas to not have,can avoid, china is right of natural gas " appetite " it is greatly more and more cannot have gone against the big trend that turn, but the foot that structure of Chinese country energy resources reforms, and the development speed of company of production of native land natural gas, remain the tremendous variable that forecasts hard to Russia, be in last year, still come out continuously Chinese natural gas imports slow down in demand, the market takes low word.
On the other hand, what circuit produces pair of Europe air feed that whole production has been formed to carry chain inside Russia for years is vacant, not be pure support policy go up " turn eastwards " can compensate. Recently two years since, what Russian gas division falls is additional two main projects -- with Osmanli " Turkey flows " go to Europe with classics Poland " boreal brook - 2 " all follow touchdown of predestined relationship situation become loose and have progress quite, unavoidable also right east line project formed trend of some kind of billabong. A messages November 2016 say, russia is angry already this not much usable capital from east the line turns piece, change cast to just begin construction before long Turkey.
General Beijing interviewed Turkey president Aierduoan in Sanket 2016 origin: Kremlin official net
Fall in this kind of circumstance just about, in Russian natural gas east line project lengthened two years of time limit for a project sadly, after the finishing finally time limit that announces external also is pushed from 2022, arrived 2024. In July 2017, even still inside information personage discloses to Reuter, as a result of the uncertainty of price of the sources of energy and Chinese economy progress, russian gas reduces future of purpose east the air feed quantity of the line.
Is the market rejuvenescent?However November 2017, the circumstance produced acuteness change suddenly.
The grim situation that come and begins of season to realize natural gas furnishs this gradually as heating in Chinese north while, russia home defect is in a panic about situation of market of Chinese natural gas -- but because the China when those has not erupt completely,this is not " gas barren " , however by what American president Telangpu of Chu Fanghua will bring in November.
Telangpu will be visited in November China during, sino-US between the cooperative project that signed 5 to involve natural gas in all, capital total occupied the half above of amount of total trade contract, and it is liquid gas entirely (LNG) entrance and cooperative project. Although from dimensions for, although these 5 projects are added, also cannot with what 400 billion is as high as between the Russia in 2014 east photograph of contract of line air feed is compared, but this year Chinese liquid gas imports an amount first half of the year already the first time exceeded conduit gas, and still be below the big setting that grows quickly, develop the multiple problem such as heft of direction, commerce and political element considering the technology, crisis feeling of the Russian exploded suddenly watch: Should be natural gas market of China reaved by American?
△ Russia mainland searchs engine to input " Chinese natural gas " after associate automatically: "Oil, natural gas and ruble, china steps on next Russia footplate suddenly " , " China should buy natural gas from the United States " , " China does not buy natural gas from Russia " . (the first title that is post of a popular net)
Just be in right now, "Gas barren " the attention central issue that became Chinese country, the energy supply detail of make inquires of past lack person is brushed between one night exploded each are big media, amount to noticed China a few times not much " gas barren " the ground of Russia media amazed of the problem writes: "Before this unbeknown vacant -- in Chinese north, ' Siberia force ' the place that conduit is about to lead to, do not have enough natural gas. Do not have enough natural gas..
In December, with arctic " Yamaer " gas field the first liquid gas boat sails the message to China at the same time, long those who do not have a message east line project begins to see Zhu Baoduan thick and fast: , this year east target of line year construction is to achieve 1100 kilometers originally, had overfulfiled the conduit laid of 1300 kilometers nowadays. Meanwhile, the negotiation that project of bilateral more collaboration has also increased frequency apparently. Although at present till, what announced to go aground 2015 is medium line negotiation still did not acquire Russian natural gas on the west what materiality makes progress, but on December 21, russian gas and in reached between oil from Russia far east the schematic agreement of the another conduit circuitry to Chinese northward air feed, what fall into trough for a time is medium Russian natural gas negotiates, had greeted another to rise it seems that period.
General Beijing visited Yamaer on December 8, 2017 origin of natural gas factory: Kremlin
However the problem depends on, natural gas shortage had affected most directly at the moment therein daily life of the country, and the natural gas that imports through traditional conduit means -- this is remained in the main form of commerce of Russian natural gas, the main form that also is exit of Russia natural gas -- be destined to be in impossibly short-term inside " fast battle quick decision " . Publish data according to Chinese home, boiler of industrial coal fired in the near future 3.6 times transforming a quantity will be 2017, civil coal changes energy of life only China north area has not transform have 27 million, it is 9 times what transform a quantity this year, and above have not plan need into chemical industry place. The technologist forecasts the petrolic in coming from, shortage problem cannot see Chinese natural gas solve a likelihood inside at least 5 years, and come behindhand ability is preliminary and devoted 2020 the natural gas of operation east line, at the appointed time transport power and on the knees of the gods of real market share -- according to estimation, chinese home natural gas was consumed 2017 only increment, already was as high as 33 billion stere, can have swallowed almost east the design annual of line project is defeated by tolerance.
Often be as long as several years compared with negotiation and pipeline construction even tens of year conduit gas entrance, volume of import of Chinese liquid gas is added in recent years fast breathtaking, development speed and import quantity already overtook conduit is enraged stage by stage, basically be being supplied just is Australia, Qatar is mixed just sign an agreement before long, the United States that has not begin air feed formally. And in presently of natural gas of joint development arctic " Yamaer " the project just is started, development cycle is endless and economic benefits still not knowable. From the point of this angle, russia will still last to the angst future of market of Chinese natural gas.
The world says
Lu Chen
Responsibility edits | Xu Yitong
Operation edits | Mei Qiong grants
Layout edits | Xu Jingyi
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